Spurs coach Gregg Popovich probably won’t make Tim Duncan defend Blake Griffin full-time. (D. Clarke Evans/NBAE via Getty Images)

We’ve already got a bang-up preview of the Spurs-Clippers series that begins tonight, and I’ve already given my quick-hitting prediction: Spurs in five. That prediction is based on the idea that the Clippers’ defense, merely average in the regular season, won’t be able to limit the Spurs’ league-best offense enough to win four times in seven tries. The Spurs lit up the Clippers in three regular-season games, scoring nearly 113 points per 100 possessions — about 4.5 points better than San Antonio’s overall mark — and shooting 44 percent from three-point range on nearly 25 attempts per game.

The Clippers struggled to defend the three all season, and their big men are shaky against the pick-and-roll — a deadly combination of flaws against a San Antonio team that, unlike the Grizzlies, does not offer a poor shooter or two off of which the Clippers can help.

That said, the Spurs’ status as big favorites here come with a few caveats:

• The Clippers scored 107.2 points per 100 possessions against the Spurs, a mark that would have nearly led the league, and they would have taken two of three meetings with San Antonio if not for a semi-miraculous Gary Neal game-tying three-pointer. The Spurs, surprisingly, ranked as one of the league’s worst teams at defending the pick-and-roll, per Synergy Sports. They ranked dead last in points allowed per possession on pick-and-rolls in which the ball-handler finished the play, and the Clippers have a pretty decent point guard–provided Chris Paul’s groin allows him to be something close to the usual Chris Paul. For the season, about 15.9 percent of San Antonio possessions ended via a pick-and-roll ball-handler finishing the play, the largest figure for any playoff team, per Synergy.

That probably says at least a little bit about how the Spurs prioritize defending various shot types over others, but it also suggests Paul could feast on open mid-range shots and driving lanes.

• The Clippers’ defense improved as the season went on and played well against the Grizzlies in the first round. That is partly due to a few bench players (Reggie Evans, Kenyon Martin, Eric Bledsoe) combining for more minutes, but Blake Griffin’s rotations were also a bit zippier during some of the higher-leverage moments of the Memphis series.

• The Clippers’ other huge defensive weakness — a tendency to foul everything in sight — is not something the Spurs are especially good at exploiting. San Antonio ranked a bit below average in earning free throws, though we might see Evans knock Tony Parker beyond mid-court with a hip-check on a pick-and-roll at some point in this series. Read More…

It can be frustrating sometimes when fans and media give into easy narratives in explaining what happens in a complicated game involving 10 players interacting at a fast pace over 180 possessions. And then there are times when one team really does “impose its will” and its physicality on an opponent. The Grizzlies’ season-saving 92-80 win in Game 5 was one of those times, especially during the first quarter, when they ran up a big lead they would never surrender, despite the late-game scoring hiccups that are coming to define this series.

Don’t get me wrong: Lots of things contributed to this Memphis win — some fun Xs-and-Os designed to get the ball inside, the brief appearance of 2011 Zach Randolph, stifling perimeter defense that shut off the Clippers’ pick-and-roll attack and late-game injuries to the Clippers’ star players. But at a basic level, the Grizzlies committed themselves to outworking L.A. inside. Randolph fought harder against Reggie Evans’ fronting defense, and the Memphis bigs ran the floor hard, got into Blake Griffin’s chest early and overpowered him in the post.

Let’s look at some of the ways this happened:

• More screening action

One way to beat a fronting defense and generally open lanes  for entry passes is to get big guys moving around screens in the half-court offense. Here is the first Memphis possession of the game:

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Grizzlies coach Lionel Hollins wouldn’t be human if he weren’t frustrated, his team having blown a massive lead in Game 1 of their series with the Clippers and lost two other very winnable games in crunch time. He accused the Clippers of “flopping,” and then on Wednesday, he described Clippers’ strong man Reggie Evans like this, per Chris Herrington of the Memphis Flyer:

“His impact has been pushing, grabbing and throwing people out of the way.”

That’s an oversimplification, of course. Evans has been playing some spirited and effective post defense, and his ability to front the Grizzlies’ post players has made entering the ball a tough task for Memphis’ perimeter guys. He is a dynamite offensive rebounder, even without any subtle cheating. But Hollins is right to suggest Evans is throwing some well-timed shoves into his game, and if the referees aren’t going to call all of them, why wouldn’t he? He  wiped out Zach Randolph with one-handed hook of Randolph’s upper body to snag an offensive rebound in overtime of the Clippers’ Game 4 victory, and we caught him red-handed shoving Marreese Speights out of the way as Speights tried to set a pick for Mike Conley in Game 3.

These are blatantly obvious fouls that somehow go uncalled in an era when point guards can’t lay a hand on their opposite number during dribble drives. And it’s not all that unusual for officials to let pass such contact among big men or at least executed by one. Kevin Garnett is the master at adding a little extra oomph to every one of his interactions with an opposing point guard, and Kendrick Perkins in the Thunder’s opening round series created a driving lane for Russell Westbrook by simply shoving Ian Mahinmi out of the way, in full view of everyone watching the game. Utah’s Paul Millsap is another guy who will occasionally disrupt an opposing pick-and-roll by pushing the screener in the back and nudging him out of position to set a screen.

I’m going to keep singling these out when I notice them, or when alert readers flag them. My interest does not stem from some moral outrage or a vendetta against any particular player. Basketball is and should be a physical game, especially on the block, and part of being good at basketball is being able to withstand physical play. It’s more that I think the shoves are funny. They are just so obvious, out there in open space along the perimeter, blatant uncalled fouls that have a real impact on whether a team scores on a particular possession. I find it curious big men are so easily able to get away with them.

To wit: Step right up, Greg Stiemsma! Here’s Boston’s backup center laying a nice one on poor old Erick Dampier Tuesday night in Atlanta’s thrilling Game 5 win:

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Battling the Grizzlies’ rugged front line, Blake Griffin had 30 points and seven assists in the Clippers’ victory in Game 4. (Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images)

With about 5:40 left and the Clippers leading the Grizzlies by seven points in Game 4 on Monday, Memphis forwards Rudy Gay and Zach Randolph ran a pick-and-roll on the right side of the floor. The pick held up Gay’s defender, Nick Young, forcing Randolph’s man, Kenyon Martin, to slide onto Gay and chase him above the three-point line. Randolph rolled wide open into his sweet spot on the right wing. Randolph’s partner in bruising dominance, Marc Gasol, flashed toward the foul line, putting Gasol’s defender, Blake Griffin, in a terrible position, stuck as the only defender left to monitor two very good, very large players.

Gay took one lefty dribble backward, and with his momentum still moving him slightly toward mid-court, he threw a long bounce pass toward Randolph. The pass was a beat late, thrown with too little pace, and it bounced high off the ground. The play unfolded slowly enough for Griffin, an allegedly poor defender, to read it, dart over to Randolph, slice in front him and steal the ball.

On the ensuing possession, the Clippers went to Griffin on the left block against Randolph, hoping Griffin could use his allegedly unrefined post game to create offense while Chris Paul continued an extended stint on the bench. Griffin turned to face Randolph, brought the ball down to his knee level and faked a lefty drive to the baseline. Randolph leaned that way, and Griffin exploded back to his right and dribbled into the foul line area, drawing Grizzlies point guard Mike Conley off Mo Williams at the top of the three-point arc for some crisis management. Griffin flicked a pass to Williams for a three-pointer, dishing the last of his seven assists (to go with 30 points) during an important stretch in which the Clippers built a lead, on Griffin’s back, as Paul rested up for his late-game heroics.

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Last week, as Rick Carlisle discussed the very real dangers of “dirty” play, I pointed out a more subtle kind of “dirtiness” — the wily kind of rule-breaking veteran big men engage in all the time on the perimeter. The perpetrator spotlighted in that post was Kendrick Perkins, guilty of blatantly shoving Dallas’ Ian Mahinmi with two hands, moving Mahinmi out of position to defend a pick-and-roll and opening a driving lane for Russell Westbrook.

It was an obvious foul, a piece of illegal basketball activity that altered the game in one small way. Some two-handed contact is inevitable — and in some cases, allowed — under the rim, especially when big guys jostle for rebounding position. In a crowded scrum, it’s often difficult for referees to see who is doing what, and whether an arm that appears to be attached to one flailing set of body parts is in fact doing something against the rules. But out in the wide open spaces of the perimeter? Call the foul.

In the interest of fairness, here is Reggie Evans late in Game 3 of the Grizzlies-Clippers doing the defensive version of what Perkins did on offense last week (see the 18-second mark of this video, kindly uploaded by MrTrpleDouble10 of the Celtics-themed blog Red’s Army):

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What made the Clippers’ massive comeback Sunday night in Memphis even more amazing was how slowly it came at first, how impossible it seemed with about four minutes to go, and then how fast it actually happened. The Clippers were still down by 24 with eight minutes remaining, and they turned the ball over three straight times between the 4:20 mark and the 3:16 mark of the fourth quarter, seemingly blowing whatever chance they had of completing the rally against the Grizzlies in Game 1.

To pull off a comeback while playing such imperfect ball requires just about everything else to go exactly right, pretty darn quickly. A dozen little things added up to one historic rally. The Grizzlies’ offense collapsed, in part because coach Lionel Hollins sat Zach Randolph for nearly four minutes down the stretch, an understandable move (Randolph is still trying to get back into game condition and he looked shaky for much of the night) that nonetheless allowed Blake Griffin to guard Marreese Speights while Reggie Evans battled Marc Gasol for every inch of territory. Speights, never a “plus” defender, couldn’t handle Griffin down low on the other end. Tony Allen missed a put-back and was improbably exposed on defense when finally given the go-ahead to take Chris Paul. Other horrible things happened for Memphis.

But if you had to pick one factor that made the game winnable, it was this: The Clippers made a bunch of three-pointers in a really small span of time. Two-point buckets simply wouldn’t do; they needed threes, and they got them, thanks to a complicated mix of factors. Let’s take a look at the Clippers’ last four three-pointers, starting with Eric Bledsoe’s seventh three of the entire season:

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Blake Griffin posterized Pau Gasol (twice) in the Lakers' win over the Clippers. (Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images)

A night that had the potential to be the craziest of the regular season certainly lived up to the hype, with games in Minnesota, New Orleans, Utah, Los Angeles, Boston and Miami — all but one with major playoff implications — coming down to crunch time. The Jazz-Suns showdown was probably the most exciting of the night, with Paul Millsap and Steve Nash trading ridiculous clutch plays around a Channing Frye banked-in prayer that gave the Suns three crucial points during a dry spell.

But Lakers-Clippers might have been the most spell-binding game. The Staples Center tenants have been barking at each other and trading shoves since the preseason, Blake Griffin mauled Pau Gasol twice Thursday night and Chris Paul worked his brand of magic again in the fourth quarter. The win 113-108 Lakers win gave them the inside track to both the Pacific Division title and the No. 3 seed. They are now two games up in the loss column over the No. 4 Clippers, with the season series tie-breaker in hand. If the standings hold, the two teams could not meet in what would be a hugely entertaining playoff series unless they both advanced to the conference finals. That would seem unlikely.

Some bullet point thoughts on the game:

• About those Griffin dunks over Gasol: The second one was clearly an offensive foul, and as I watched it, I once again thought that if I were a coach, I’d create some sort of cash bonus system for players who give good, honest challenges against big-time dunkers. The system would also carry small cash fines for players who duck out of the way.

Alas, I checked with the league, and such a system would violate league rules that ban teams from changing a player’s compensation in any way.

Such a system is inherently silly, since it’s meant to heal wounds players may not even feel so deeply; players understand that being the victim of a highlight now and then is the price of doing business, and they keep the big picture in mind better than fans do. And Pau, of course, continued to play hard, highlighted by his crunch-time rejection of Griffin in the post. Still, when you catch Andrew Bynum desecrating the very idea of “transition defense” with his “elderly man jogging” routine several times per game, it’s discouraging to know lots of fans and highlight shows will miss that and focus on Gasol actually trying to play sound defense. Read More…

Blake Griffin and the Clippers have hit the skids thanks largely to a poor defense that isn't getting any better. (EPA)

Despite 11 losses in 18 games, the Clippers remain in good position to make the playoffs because of their relatively hot start, their favorable remaining schedule and the struggles of other postseason hopefuls.

But a team that appeared to mark itself a contender when it thumped the Thunder on Jan. 30 now appears to be playoff roadkill. Its struggles, including a blowout loss at Oklahoma City on Wednesday and a home defeat last week to a Phoenix team resting Steve Nash and Grant Hill, have prompted two locker-room shouting sessions and rumblings that coach Vinny Del Negro’s job is in danger.

Del Negro’s job, of course, was in danger the moment the Clippers traded for Chris Paul, transforming themselves into a team that needed a championship-level coach sooner rather than later. Del Negro is not a championship-level coach, unless they give out championships for coaches who scream and stomp their feet at opposing shooters. The knock on Del Negro, dating to his two seasons in Chicago, is that his offense is boring and predictable. It is. I have news for you, team playing the Clippers tonight: Caron Butler is going to set a back screen for Blake Griffin on the left wing, turn to the side, set a ball screen for Chris Paul and then pop to the left corner while Griffin sets up in the post. Repeat 25 times, sprinkle in some more traditional Paul high pick-and-rolls, add a dash of Mo Williams running around screens at the elbows and, presto, you have the Clippers’ offense. Everyone knows what’s coming.

But most teams generally know what’s coming against every team they play, and the Clippers still rank sixth in offensive efficiency with 104.1 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com. The best coaches can catch opponents by surprise out of timeouts, by switching up what plays they emphasize night-to-night, and by constantly adding wrinkles and counters to their bread-and-butter stuff. Del Negro isn’t elite at making these adjustments. Nevertheless, the Clippers’ offense is just fine and has basically held steady during this poor stretch. Their scoring has dropped by less than a point per 100 possessions over the last 15 games, per NBA.com.

Their defense, on the other hand, is a total disaster. And while a better defensive coach could mitigate the damage, I’m not sure this Clippers team was ever going to be ready to play championship-level defense in this lockout-compressed season. The Clippers rank 23rd in points allowed per possession, a mark that essentially disqualifies them (historically speaking) from title contention and makes them the worst defensive team among those competing for a playoff spot. In the last 15 games, the Clippers have regressed badly, allowing 106.1 points per 100 possessions, which would about tie them with Washington as the league’s third-worst defense.

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The Nuggets sent Nene to Washington for JaVale McGee, among other pieces. (Garrett W. Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images)

What a bold move from the Denver Nuggets: One of the great NBA stories of the last calendar year, a team that thrived without Carmelo Anthony, has traded its centerpiece player to the Washington Wizards in a three-team deal that netted them an expiring contract and the league’s most enigmatic young center in JaVale McGee. The Wizards will now take on the remaining four-plus seasons of the $65 million deal Nene signed with Denver just a few short months ago, and in order to make the salary cap math work, the Wizards sent Nick Young to the Clippers.

Let’s start in Los Angeles, because our stay will be brief: This is a very nice move for the Clippers. They get a true 6-foot-6 shooting guard who has often swung to small forward in smaller Washington lineups. Young is a catch-and-shoot gunner with shot-selection issues, but he’s also on a cheap expiring deal and thus presents little risk for the Clippers.

The Clippers have gone just 9-10 since Chauncey Billups suffered a season-ending Achilles tear, and they are so thin on the wing that they acquired Bobby Simmons, who was out of the NBA, and immediately inserted him into their rotation. Caron Butler had no other backup, and teams were attacking Mo Williams in the post when the Clippers played Williams alongside Chris Paul. Young is bigger than Randy Foye, the Clips other alternative at shooting guard, and he’s a better shooter than Foye from two-point and three-point range. The Wizards need shooting, because none of their front-court players can shoot from the perimeter; add one so-so shooting guard, and the spacing gets tight.

FULL LIST OF DEADLINE DEALS

Young isn’t perfect, but he’ll get the ball only when Paul chooses to give it to him, and he’s not as bad a defender as his shoot-first, shoot-always reputation suggests. The move provides important depth for the Clippers at virtually no cost. The Clippers sent Brian Cook to the Wizards and used a trade exception acquired in the original Chris Paul deal to fit Young’s salary. Read More…

A Dwight Howard-Chris Bosh tandem in Miami is a longshot. (Gary Bassing/NBAE via Getty Images)

Before all of Wednesday’s craziness, with Dwight Howard reportedly willing to pick up his option for 2012-13 then not pick up his option for 2012-13, Chris Mannix, my colleague at SI.com, tweeted that some folks in the All-Star center’s camp indicated that he would have interest in signing long-term with the Heat or the Clippers.

Howard is eligible for a starting salary of nearly $19 million next season on a new free-agent contract with a team other than the Magic, and neither the Clips nor the Heat will have anything like the kind of cap space necessary for that kind of deal. The Heat are totally capped out years into the future and will likely pay the luxury tax for at least the next four seasons. The Clippers can work their way to a middling bit of cap room if they use the amnesty provision on Mo Williams, but once you factor in charges for empty roster spots, you’re talking about $5 million to $6 million in cap room. Howard probably doesn’t want to go to the Clippers that badly.

But in theory, it’s interesting to talk about whether the Clippers, Heat and a few other teams uninvolved in the Howard bidding should get themselves involved — assuming Howard’s flakiness and inability to commit on Wednesday didn’t deter teams from gambling on him. Howard is indisputably one of the league’s top-five players, its best big man and defender, and he just turned 26 a few months ago. He has already logged nearly 25,000 minutes between the playoffs and the regular-season, but there is not reason to expect any major drop-off in his level of play over the next half-dozen seasons. This is a transformational player, and transformational players are worth having out-of-the-box conversations about.

To wit:

MIAMI HEAT

It has been popular almost since “The Decision” to suggest that the Heat think about trading LeBron James to Orlando for Dwight Howard. James and Dwyane Wade have overlapping skill-sets, the theory goes, and the Heat would jump another level by trading one of them for a player that has no duplicate anywhere. The Heat don’t have a “true center,” and they compensate in part by over-rotating in order to protect the lane, a strategy that can leave perimeter shooters open — provided Miami’s opponent is smart, quick and savvy enough to thread swing passes through lanes the Heat close faster than anyone. LeBron has the salary necessary for an easy trade match, and the Magic could never do better than getting the very best basketball player in the world. Read More…