Paul Pierce has produced very little, the Celtics rare get to the line and they often turn over the ball. (AP)

All sorts of crazy things happened in the last five minutes or so of Philadelphia’s huge Game 2 win in Boston on Monday, and I’ll get to them in a second. But first let me say this: I am astonished on a daily basis by how many fans, both in Boston and elsewhere, think the Celtics are a good offensive team, and are thus surprised they have struggled to score against the Hawks and the Sixers. The misunderstanding seems to come from the fact that a) Boston has very famous players on its team; and b) the Celtics rank fifth overall in field-goal percentage and eighth in three-point percentage.

So let me put this as clearly as I can: The Celtics are a bad offensive team. They were so-so last season and in 2009-10, and have been in continuing decline on offense for three seasons now. It’s wonderful that they shoot with great accuracy, especially from three-point range, but accurate shooting does not alone make a team good at scoring points. Field-goal percentage is no way to judge offense. It does not account for how many shots a team generates, how often it gets to the foul line and what sorts of shots it attempts. And in news that broke three years ago, this is where Boston fails.

The Celtics get to the foul line at a below-average rate, meaning they don’t generate many of the game’s easiest points. Only six teams attempted fewer three-pointers than Boston, rendering the Celtics’ very nice accuracy from that range not-so-meaningful. No team in NBA history has ever rebounded fewer of its own misses, which is a fancy way of saying Boston — mostly by choice — gets almost no second-chance points via offensive rebounds.

And for the fifth straight season, the Celtics have been among the league’s worst teams at turning over the ball. The result: Boston ranked 25th in points per possession, in a virtual tie with the Wizards. Toss in some serious health issues, and no one should be surprised Boston is playing low-scoring slugfests against a Philly defense that was neck-and-neck all season with Boston and Chicago atop the points-allowed-per-possession rankings. Read More…

After another epic between the Grizzlies and Clippers on Monday, every remaining first-round series stands at 3-1. And in a weird scheduling quirk, four teams have a chance to close out 4-1 victories tonight, a scenario that would leave us with one fait accompli in Miami and one remaining hope for real on-court drama in Memphis. Here’s one key factor to watch in each of the four games:

PACERS VS. MAGIC

Indiana has outscored the Magic by 55 points in the 158 minutes that David West has logged in this series. (Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images)

The power forward matchup: We knew going in that Orlando lacked the size to match up with the behemoth Roy Hibbert, but David West’s old-man game has been just as big a problem — and perhaps a bigger one — for Ryan Anderson, Earl Clark and (in fewer chances) Glen Davis. Indiana has outscored the Magic by 55 points in the 158 minutes that West has logged in this series, while the Magic have won the remaining 39 minutes — with West sitting — by a mammoth 19-point margin.

This all peaked in the third quarter of Game 4, when the Pacers built a huge behind West doing a little bit of everything — slipping screens to create penetration, drawing double-teams in the post, ducking in for post-up chances behind Hibbert pick-and-rolls and firing solid passes to open shooters. He overpowered Anderson and Clark, and his play, coupled with Anderson’s disappearance, has been perhaps the largest swing factor in this series. It got so bad that Stan Van Gundy went small in the second half of the fourth quarter, with Hedo Turkoglu at power forward, a move that seemed to unnerve the Pacers for a short stretch.

But in the long run, or what’s left of it, the Magic need Anderson to make this matchup something close to a wash. He’s just 10-of-31 from the floor so far, and the secondary skills he brings — offensive rebounds, two-point shots, the occasional free throws — have vanished in this series. Orlando has a huge speed advantage at the big-man positions, and it can (and has) hurt Indiana by running West in multiple pick-and-rolls and targeting Hibbert as the last man in quick-hitting, staggered screen plays, knowing Hibbert will sag back and concede a jump shot. Anderson needs to make some of those jump shots, and the Magic need to find a way to limit West on the other end without compromising themselves fatally elsewhere. That’s a huge challenge given the roster limitations here, but Van Gundy, working what might be his last game in Orlando on Tuesday, has coached his tail off in this series. Does he have some tricks left? Read More…

The Celtics will lose their primary creator, Rajon Rondo, for Game 2 in Atlanta. (Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

Beating the Hawks four times in seven tries was always going to be a tough task — a 60/40 proposition, on the happy side — but the Celtics have made it much more difficult, first by punting a chance at the end of the regular season to seize home-court advantage, and now with the suspension of Rajon Rondo for Game 2.

The Celtics have had some recent issues with referee Marc Davis, whom Rondo bumped with 41 seconds left in Boston’s Game 1 loss on Sunday. Rondo was already angry with Davis over a controversial out-of-bounds call that went against Boston with 2:14 left, just 14 seconds shy of the replay window. Davis then whistled Celtics forward Brandon Bass for a foul as he and Josh Smith scrambled for a loose ball at the end of crucial Atlanta possession. Bass appeared to foul Smith at least once on the play, meaning Davis made the correct call in choosing a foul over a jump ball — the call for which Rondo agitated.

Rondo is right in the sense that officials often call a jump ball in similar late-game situations as a way of shrugging their shoulders and staying out of things. But if you watch the replay, you can’t really fault Davis for his judgment. Nor can you fault the league for suspending Rondo for one game. The rule book is clear: Any player who makes “intentional” contact with an official gets an automatic one-game suspension. The only work the NBA had to do here is determine whether Rondo meant to bump Davis, and the more you watch the clip, the harder it is to buy the point guard’s explanation that it was an accident.

Rondo claimed after the game that he might have tripped on Davis’ foot in (aggressively) approaching the official, lost his balance and stumbled into Davis’ back. And if you freeze this video clip at the 1:01 mark, Rondo’s left foot indeed appears to make contact with Davis’ right foot. But then Rondo takes another step, and as he approaches Davis, he juts out his chest for what appears to be a pretty intentional bump.

By the letter of the law, the suspension is justified, and internally, Celtics higher-ups have to be shaking their heads over the team’s best young player — its main creative force — losing his temper and making himself unavailable for a crucial playoff game. Rondo’s loss of control is even more damaging, given Ray Allen’s questionable status due to bone spurs in his ankle and the revelation on Monday, via ESPN.com’s Jackie MacMullan, that Kevin Garnett is dealing with hip flexors so painful that he asked out of a late-season game against the Heat. Taking a 40-minute-plus player from a thin roster means guys who should really be end-of-benchers at this point — Keyon Dooling and Sasha Pavlovic — are going to have to play and at least hold the fort, and that the remaining core players might have to log more time than coach Doc Rivers might be comfortable giving them otherwise.

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Boston allows 4.5 fewer points per 100 possessions when Kevin Garnett, a potential DPOY candidate, is on the court. (Greg M. Cooper/US PRESSWIRE)

“Defense wins championships” has always been an inaccurate cliché in the NBA.

It’s true that below-average defensive teams have a hard time winning four straight playoff series, but the same has long been true of below-average offensive teams. Evidence suggests that the elite defense/so-so offense combination is slightly better for postseason success than the so-so defense/elite offense model, but the difference isn’t huge, and the simple reality is that championship-caliber teams are very good on both ends of the floor.

Boston, though, might be ready to test the viability of the all defense/no offense model of winning. It now leads the league in points allowed per possession, having passed the Sixers over the weekend, and in the last 15 games, it has been downright terrifying. For the season, the Celtics have allowed 95.3 points per 100 possessions, making them roughly 6.3 points per 100 possessions stingier than an average defense this season. That is obviously really good, but that margin of 6.3 points is only slightly larger — if at all — than the typical margin we see between the league’s top defense and an average one in any particular season.

Over the last 15 games, Boston has allowed 92.9 points per 100 possessions, about 8.5 points per 100 possessions better than the league average. Over the last 10 games? That number is down to 89.1, a ridiculous 12.5 points per 100 possessions below the league’s overall average. It’s not unprecedented for an elite defense to have a 10-game stretch like this, but Boston is pushing the limits right now.

Bottom line: The Celtics’ season-long defense has been very good, but their defense over the last 15 games would qualify as historically good if they can duplicate it over the long haul. And “historically good” at least gives them a chance to be interesting in the playoffs, because their’ offense has continued to produce at a bottom-five level even during this hot streak.

Boston’s defense has improved in all aspects over the last 15 games, a stretch that has coincided with Avery Bradley seizing rotation minutes and then a starting spot in place of Ray Allen. Over this stretch, the Celtics have fouled less often, cleaned the defensive glass at a slightly above-average rate (an improvement for them) and held opponents to sub-40 percent shooting from the floor and sub-30 percent shooting from three-point range. The only metric they haven’t improved upon over the last 15 games is the rate at which they force turnovers, and they’ve ranked among the top half-dozen teams in that category for virtually the entire season. Read More…

Rajon Rondo's trade value was a hot topic again after he lit up the Knicks for 18 points, 20 assists and 17 rebounds on Sunday. (Damian Strohmeyer/SI)

Talk to people around the league about Rajon Rondo and you hear lots of praise followed by one overriding concern: Can the Boston point guard’s game work when he’s not surrounded by elite shooters at three (or more) positions? SI.com’s Ian Thomsen gave voice to this concern in his dead-on analysis of Rondo’s very Rondo-like triple-double on Sunday against the Knicks:

This fascinating back-and-forth afternoon raised the question of what Rondo might (or might not) be able to accomplish next season — if, say, he no longer benefits from the floor-spacing presences of Kevin Garnett (who was aggressive for his 18 points, 10 rebounds, four steals, three assists and two blocks) and Ray Allen (12 points, including five straight in transition to break open the OT), who will be free agents this summer. If Rondo isn’t surrounded by such tremendous shooters, will his production suffer? If a pass-first point guard like Rondo isn’t winning games, which might very well be the case here next season, will his value necessarily decrease? If that’s going to happen, then obviously the Celtics ought to be seeking trades sooner than later.

As Thomsen notes, Rondo has played nearly every crucial minute of the last four seasons, save for the last three months of 2008-09, with Hall of Fame-level snipers at shooting guard and both forward positions. The Celtics’ shooting level has jumped this season, with Brandon Bass replacing a good chunk of minutes the team has historically given to non-shooting centers, such as Kendrick Perkins, Shaquille O’Neal and Jermaine O’Neal. Rondo is still a below-average shooter, especially for a guard, and he cannot space the floor alone. It’s fair to wonder how Rondo might fit on a roster with lesser shooters at one or two positions.

As an aside, the most ardent Rondo-backers will argue that he is an adequate jump shooter based on Hoopdata’s numbers, which show that he is shooting 41 percent this season on long two-point jumpers — just above the league average of about 40 percent. This, of course, is a preposterous argument. If Dirk Nowitzki got the same kind of long two-point looks that defenses give Rondo, he might make 75 percent of them. Defenses ignore Rondo beyond 15 feet, mucking up Boston’s spacing, and hitting 42 percent of shots worth two points instead of three does not amount to punishing those defenses. Rondo has attempted just 17 three-pointers all season. He has improved his shooting gradually, but he remains a subpar outside shooter, and that carries larger consequences for Boston. Read More…

This year is a test for everyone, but there are four teams to watch for the remainder of the season — four teams that are either experiencing a temporary internal crisis or playing closer to what is really their true level. If it’s the latter, teams just outside the playoff races or holding a loose grip on the No. 7 or No. 8 spots — the Grizzlies, Jazz, Bucks and Timberwolves — might have reason for encouragement.

A quick look at each:

INDIANA PACERS

Despite Danny Granger's improved shooting, Indiana's offense still lags. (Gary Dineen/NBAE/Getty Images)

The Pacers have lost six of eight to drop to 18-12, ceding that “feel-good threat to Miami and Chicago” status to Philadelphia and falling to a point where New York, Boston and Milwaukee can see them without squinting. Injuries and the schedule are both culprits here, but the collapse of Indiana’s formerly top-shelf defense and the shaky play of its bench are both worrisome trends to monitor.

The Pacers are without George Hill, their best bench player and key insurance for Darren Collison, and Jeff Foster returned from injury only a week ago. They also just finished a stretch of seven games in 10 days that contained one segment of four games in five nights and a separate back-to-back-to-back  that ended Thursday night, with a much-needed win over Deron Williams and the Deron Williams Players.

This Indiana team was always going to win by relying on solid defense to lift a mediocre offense, while hoping internal improvements to that offense might help it win more — and against better teams — later. The offense has remained inconsistent, even as Danny Granger has done the inevitable and rediscovered his jumper. This is a post-heavy team without an elite creator, and it can look very slow on the wrong night.

The Pacers have been neck-and-neck with the Lakers all season in terms of devoting the greatest share of its possessions to post-up plays (per Synergy Sports), and Collison, despite flashes and generally solid play, just hasn’t made a leap as a penetrator or creator. Hill and Paul George can both run the pick-and-roll, but they often do so tentatively, dribbling sideways instead of into the teeth of a defense. Read More…

The Celtics already missed the window to get big value in trades for (from left) Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett. (Michael Dwyer/AP)

Celtics president Danny Ainge has told this story a hundred times, on the record for newspapers and in multiple books. But this is newsworthy again Thursday because Boston is 5-8, with no quality wins, an offense that looks like its old self and a defense that doesn’t (via The Boston Globe):

“I sat with Red [Auerbach] during a Christmas party [20 years ago]. Red was talking to Larry [Bird], Kevin [McHale], and myself, and there was a lot of trade discussion at the time, and Red actually shared some of the trade discussions. And I told Red, ‘What are you doing? Why are you waiting?’

“He had a chance to trade Larry [to Indiana] for Chuck Person and Herb Williams and [Steve] Stipanovich, and he had a chance to trade Kevin [to Dallas] for Detlef Schrempf and Sam Perkins. I was, like, ‘Are you kidding?’

“I mean, I feel that way now. If I were presented with those kinds of deals for our aging veterans, it’s a done deal, to continue the success.

“After those guys retired, the Celtics had a long drought.”

The implication is obvious: The Celtics are prepared to “blow it up” at any moment, ready to trade any member of the new Big Three that brought Boston its first title since the old Big Three stuck around too long. Fan impatience can be staggering, and the calls for Ainge to blow it up overlook several obvious things, as pointed out over the last few days by several smart people.

• The Celtics have effectively already blown it up. They have just $35 million in committed salary for next season, leaving perhaps as much as $25 million in cap space (should they renounce their rights to all of their free agents) to chase a max-level free agent and other rotation parts. Rajon Rondo is the only player with major guaranteed money beyond the 2012-13 season.

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One of Miami's zone antidotes begins with one of their wing stars like Dwyane Wade. (Joe Skipper/Reuters)

It wouldn’t have surprised me before Tuesday night to learn the Celtics had essentially never practiced zone defense and had no concrete plans for how to build one. But there they were, proud loyalists to fierce man-to-man defense, breaking out the zone in desperation against Miami. Boston couldn’t stop the Heat all night, and with Paul Pierce out, the Celtics were forced to play from behind with the small trio of Ray Allen, Rajon Rondo and Keyon Dooling — a trio that lacks any realistic one-on-one matchup for LeBron James.

And so, the zone. And it worked! The Celtics stuck their two best long-armed defenders — Rondo and Kevin Garnett — smack in the middle of things and confused a Miami offense that became passive. As ESPN.com’s stats team noted, nearly half of Miami’s field-goal attempts against the zone came from at least 20 feet out, and the Heat scored only about 0.54 points per possession against the zone overall.

You’ll hear more of this: Perhaps this is a blueprint for slowing Miami.

Maybe it is, if only in relative terms, since the Heat have looked unstoppable otherwise. And as it has been noted millions of times now, Miami’s two best ball-handlers –the centerpieces of its best offensive sets — are average or below-average three-point shooters. Zone defenses are designed to pack the paint and force perimeter shots, playing to the weaknesses of the Heat’s stars.

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We may get to see more of a LeBron James-Kevin Garnett matchup in the post. (AP)

We’ve got four intriguing games Tuesday night, plus the Hawks-Nets matchup (sorry!), but the two headliners are probably the Boston-Miami clash and the Lakers’ bid to avoid starting 0-3 with a loss to Utah. Here are some things to watch as Miami tries to prove it is indeed as good as it looked in eviscerating Dallas, while Boston looks to avoid an 0-2 start ahead of a soft upcoming schedule.

1. LeBron’s post-up game

LeBron James has always had a productive post-up game, but that productivity has come with caveats. It didn’t look like a post game, based on the back-to-the-basket precedents from Kobe Bryant and Michael Jordan. LeBron has preferred to catch in the post, face up and either launch a jumper or drive to the basket. It has been efficient — LeBron shot 54 percent out of the post year, per Synergy Sports – but it looked passive in comparison to those precedents, and the numbers show LeBron drew shooting fouls less frequently from the post than guys like Bryant and Paul Pierce.

He also didn’t work from the post as often as other wing scorers, though few such wing scorers can work the high pick-and-roll like James. Still, you couldn’t watch James struggle with his footwork on the block against a badly outmatched J.J. Barea in the Finals and wonder why the heck he wasn’t a bit more polished down there.

Guess what? He looked plenty polished in the opener against Dallas, running through a cross-screen under the hoop to get a bit of space, catching the pass and then bullying his man (Vince Carter, Shawn Marion) in the post. He still faded for jumpers a few times, but even those came via immediate spin moves (including one gorgeous banker) or quick-hitting face-ups in which he kept the ball above his shoulders rather than bring it down.

A related story: Pierce and newly signed Mickael Pietrus are both out for Boston tonight, leaving only Sasha Pavlovic and Marquis Daniels as realistic options to defend James. Daniels is the more polished two-way player, but at 6-foot-6 and 200 pounds, he should have no chance against an engaged James in the post. Will we see that James again, or was he a product of an opening-night vengeance adrenaline rush in Dallas? Read More…

Kevin Garnett is getting old now, but he’s still Kevin Garnett, which means he’s doing ridiculous things like this in preseason games:

Honestly, I couldn’t do a better impression of Garnett’s cartoonish trash-talking if I tried. Yes, this is stupid and probably unsportsmanlike, and it’s doubly and triply crazy because it happened in a preseason game and at the expense of yet another Raptor. Garnett once pulled the same clapping-an-inch-from-your-face-and-screaming thing at a startled Jose Calderon, and he got on all fours and barked like a dog at current Raptor Jerryd Bayless when Bayless was still in Portland. Read More…