Monday Musings: What we’ve learned through the quarter-mark of the season

Dwight Howard and the Magic could become legit contenders. (Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images)

We’re at the one-quarter mark of the NBA season, a time when I’d normally slow down, step back and address the award races, the championship picture and other hot-button topics. That seems ludicrous this season. Even 25 percent of the way through, teams are still struggling to find themselves, lots of key players are injured and what we don’t know far outweighs what we know — about both individual teams and the league in general.

But let’s try to nail down some trends that appear real and lasting:

• Offense has been as horrible as we feared. Teams are averaging just 102.5 points per 100 possessions, nearly five points fewer than last year and the lowest mark since (you guessed it) the lockout-shortened 1998-99 season. This drop-off is more severe; scoring declined only by about two points per 100 possessions from 1997-98 to the following season, since the league as a whole scored less efficiently in the 1990s than it does now.

Shooting is down by around two percentage points from every area on the court, with the league’s collective 33.9 percent mark from three-point range standing as the worst since (you guessed it) the lockout-shortened 1999 season. Teams are also turning the ball over at the highest rate since the league effectively outlawed hand-checking after the 2003-04 season. The increase amounts to only about one extra turnover per game, per team, but even that adds up in the long run.

One small bit of good news amid the pile of bricks: The pace of play hasn’t slowed much. Teams are averaging 91.6 possessions per game, a hair lower than last season’s league-wide average of 92.1, according to Basketball-Reference. The average dipped by triple that amount in 1999, when teams overall played at the slowest pace in league history.

If you watch a lot of games, it’s old news: The basketball has been ugly, as David Stern himself conceded over the weekend in this must-read interview with Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel. Teams did not have enough time to prepare, most are running very basic stuff and the general result has been a ton of missed shots. This is the cost of the lockout, though only hard-core fans will really notice or care. As ESPN.com’s John Hollinger and others have noted, offense generally starts slow in the early part of the season, but this drop-off is something else entirely.

• Here is one to watch: Teams are drawing free throws at a significantly lower rate. The league-wide ratio of free throws to field-goal attempts sits at .215, down from .229 last year. That number was up near .250 just a few seasons ago, and the current .215 mark would the lowest league-wide ratio since all the way back in 1974-75. Teams are attempting about 1.5 fewer free throws per game compared with last season, and about three fewer than in 2006-07.

Interestingly, the number of foul calls per game has hardly dropped, meaning the league’s crackdown on the so-called “rip move” and its stricter interpretation of continuation rules might be working to produce fewer shooting fouls. Again, foul rate indirectly factors in pace, so the slower pace of play — not a big change in the first place — cannot alone explain the drop in free throws. Ditto for shot selection: Teams are distributing their shots around the court in just about the same fashion as last season, meaning there has been no big move away from the rim and toward more jumpers.

The more interesting question is whom this change might help, and one team jumps out immediately: the Bulls. Chicago has the lowest opponents’ free-throw rate in the league, with a free-throw/field-goal attempt ratio of just .161. That’s partly due to luck, as opponents have shot just 70.4 percent from the stripe against the Bulls (solid free-throw defense, Carlos Boozer!), but even considering free-throw attempts rather than makes, only the Nuggets have allowed fewer foul shots per field-goal try.

Some perspective: Only 52 teams in league history — about one per season – have ever “allowed” a free-throw/field-goal attempt ratio below .190. A whopping seven teams are on pace to do it this season, and they are blowing history away in this regard. The Bulls, Nuggets, Sixers and Spurs are all on pace to crack the all-time single-season top-10 in this category, and the Rockets would finish in the top 20.

The Spurs and Rockets, smart teams well-versed in advanced stats, have long been among the league’s most foul-averse clubs — the anti-Jazz, one might say. But the idea of an aggressive Tom Thibodeau defense somehow managing to post one of the lowest foul rates ever should terrify the league. Chicago was in the middle of the pack last season, and Thibodeau’s Boston defenses, playing with the same emphasis on overloading the strong side, fouled at a higher rate than the league average. It was the price they paid for protecting the rim, attacking pick-and-rolls and maniacally challenging all strong-side action, and it was a trade-off they were happy to make.

All four of Chicago’s core bigs — Joakim Noah, Boozer, Omer Asik and Taj Gibson — have seen their foul rates drop this season, while the Bulls overall are allowing a ridiculously stingy 95.3 points per 100 possessions. Again, this is terrifying.

• Another possible title contender joins the mix. At the beginning of the season, there were three teams you could pencil in as certain title contenders: the Heat, Bulls and Thunder. Through all the drama and injuries and buzzer-beaters, ask yourself: Has that changed at all? Has any team invaded that group? I’d argue the answer is a resounding no, with one potential exception lurking: the Magic.

I wrote two weeks ago that we’d learn a lot about Orlando’s legitimacy when we saw whether its offense — its undoing last season — could hold up against better competition. So far, so good. With the exception of a stinker against the Spurs on the third night of a back-to-back-to-back, Orlando’s motion-heavy system functioned well in tough games over the last 10 days against Portland, New York and the Lakers — each among the league’s top 10 in points allowed per possession. The Magic’s offense has jumped from sixth in points per possession to second over the last two weeks, and their defense, an early season problem, is creeping back toward the overall top 10.

If the Magic can keep up this kind of two-way play, they are a legitimate threat — if an underdog, still — to the Bulls and Heat in the Eastern Conference. We’ll learn even more in the five-games-in-seven-days stretch that starts Monday and includes two games apiece against Boston and Indiana.

But does anyone else jump out? The Nuggets, perhaps. They’ve rebounded after a mini slump, including a dispiriting loss to the Hornets, and they should be able to snag a top-four seed in the Western Conference. But their defense hasn’t been much better than average, and it will be interesting to see whether their fast pace and gimmicky lineups hold up in May and June.

The Pacers and Sixers have been phenomenal and sport two of the league’s stingiest defenses, but each has faced a relatively easy schedule. Indiana’s offense is an issue — just 17th in points per possession — and the Pacers entered play Sunday night with the lowest collective opponents’ winning percentage in the league. The Sixers have been better on both ends, but the Heat outclassed them on Saturday, and the schedule will catch up to them when they start a brutal stretch of games a week from Monday. Let’s see how they handle it.

The Lakers? Their offense is 18th in points per possession, and coach Mike Brown is playing a dangerous minutes game with Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol. The defense has been fierce, but it doesn’t look like enough–yet.  We barely know the Clippers given Chris Paul’s injury, and they barely know each other. Portland has fallen back amid a few nagging injuries, and that team needs almost everything to go right in order to beat top clubs consistently. Dallas is the biggest mystery in the league and will remain so for weeks, as Dirk Nowitzki works his body back into shape and the coaching staff figures out this nutty roster. The Spurs are 1-6 on the road with a below-average defense and a roster filled with so many wild cards and unproven players, it feels like a minor miracle they’re at 10-7.

Memphis has what might be the softest six-game win streak in league history, and they’ve got games over the next two weeks against Boston, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Denver, Portland, Atlanta and the Clippers. Yikes.

The Jazz are a nice story, but not a contender. The Knicks are a disaster, and a banged-up Boston team is 6-9, without a single quality win. Houston is hot, but skepticism will remain unless/until either Kevin Martin (picking things up lately) and Luis Scola play up to expectations or one of the pups makes a bigger leap than the one Chandler Parsons has already made.

The Hawks are the Hawks — boring, predictable, effective, somehow making do with Vladimir Radmanovic, Ivan Johnson and (especially) a spry Zaza Pachulia playing Al Horford’s minutes. No one knows what to make of this team, though it will be intriguing if Marvin Williams keeps playing like he is, Jeff Teague finds his game consistently and Horford returns. But a contender? Eh.

The big picture, from here, remains the same: Miami, Chicago, Oklahoma City and everyone else.

EIGHT THINGS I LIKE AND DON’T LIKE

There is nothing 'Miami' about the Heat's new all-black home uniforms. (Greg Nelson/SI)

1. Miami’s all-black uniforms

It’s not so much that they’re ugly, which they are. It’s more that they’re so un-Miami. This is a city about heat, glitz, passion, and a weird mix of sexy and tacky. The all-black look seeks a sleekness and steeliness that doesn’t fit. You need some glowing red or orange on there.

2. DeMarcus Cousins, squeezing the baseline

He still shoots too low a percentage (44 percent) for a big man, he still turns the ball over too much and he’ll be good for a at least one more unwise temper tantrum this season. But Cousins has also been Sacramento’s best player, and it isn’t really close. One thing I love: how Cousins, on spin moves and drop-steps, finds space along the baseline that just doesn’t seem to be there. He’ll spin himself so close to the baseline that, as you’re watching, you’ll question what in the heck he’s doing and wait for the inevitable stumbling turnover. But then Cousins will carve out just enough space to jump from behind the glass for either a standard layup or an up-and-under job.

3. The Tony Allen bench show 

It’s so good you almost forget there’s a game going on. One day, Tony Allen is going to get a technical for tossing his towel onto the court, or perhaps into the face of a referee or fan, while celebrating a Memphis basket. I’d love to find out what he’s actually saying/screaming during these celebrations, many of which involve Allen stepping far onto the court. When the technical comes for some accidental transgression, I just hope it doesn’t have a chilling effect on T.A.’s bench antics.

4. Jose Calderon, stopping for that 18-footer

Calderon is a pleasure to watch. He almost never makes any bad decisions, resulting in an assist-to-turnover (or pure point rating, if you prefer) that always ranks among the league’s best. He works hard, and he communicates like a crazy person, with endless clapping and yapping combined with some wild-eyed facial expressions.

But there are times Calderon’s game might be too low-risk. He’ll turn the corner cleanly on a pick-and-roll, work his way to a clear driving lane and then stop on a dime for an open jumper from the right elbow. That’s not a bad shot, exactly; Calderon is a very good shooter, and it’s not as if he has plentiful passing options, with Andrea Bargnani injured. Still, your point guard has to attack the basket a bit more often in order to both score and open up passing lanes that won’t exist unless he takes the ball south of the foul line. Of 111 guards that have played at least 10 minutes per game over in least 10 games, only eight average fewer attempts at the rim per 40 minutes than Calderon (a paltry 1.1). Only one of those eight is a starting point guard (Jason Kidd) and most are backups or one-dimensional spot-up types.

5. Jrue Holiday’s left hand

Holiday’s development hasn’t been as smooth as Philly fans would like, but his ability to work with his left hand is going to help in that development. He can go either way on pick-and-roll plays, and on Friday against Atlanta, he lofted a gorgeous half-court, off-the-dribble lefty pass to Andre Iguodala for a breakaway dunk.

6. Oklahoma City’s new court design

The Thunder’s new all-blue painted area is so much better and cleaner than the mix of yellow, blue and plain wood they used last season. A solid upgrade for a franchise that’s going to be on national TV all the time for the next half-decade.

7. Portland’s early guard-guard screening action

It’s such a simple thing, but it works, in part because of the fast pace at which Portland is playing: One Blazer guard, normally Raymond Felton, will speed-dribble the ball up the sideline directly at another guard stationed near the three-point line on the wing. When they meet, Felton will either hand the ball off and cut to the hoop off his teammate’s screen, or keep his dribble going toward the corner, using the other guard for a ball screen.

You’d be surprised how much chaos this can cause defenses. They either switch themselves into a less favorable matchup or run the risk of losing the ball-handler around the screen. And since Portland’s guards are pushing the pace, there aren’t any big men clogging the lane when this initial action happens on the sideline. If Felton can turn the corner, he’ll often have a clear path to the rim. It’s another funky way in which a team lacking perimeter shot creators can nonetheless create shots.

8. Pau Gasol running the Lakers’ fast break

It doesn’t happen often, but it’s thrilling to watch those few moments when Gasol snags a loose ball and finds himself in the middle of the court, with numbers to L.A.’s advantage and teammates filling the lanes. Off he goes, suddenly transformed into a graceful and speedy 7-footer who can handle like a guard, dish no-look passes or finish with a finger roll. The image radiates joy.