Shaq revives scrutiny of Celtics’ Perkins trade

Shaquille O'Neal appeared in only two playoff games for the Celtics last season. (Adam Hunger/Reuters)

Shaquille O’Neal opened up on several topics in an interview with the Times-Picayune of New Orleans over the weekend. The most interesting nugget for Boston fans: Shaq claims he told Danny Ainge and the rest of the Celtics’ brain trust to nix the Kendrick Perkins/Jeff Green trade-deadline deal, in part because O’Neal knew his Achilles injury was so serious that he would be unlikely to contribute much in the postseason. Here’s Shaq:

My mind was on winning the whole thing, and we had a chance to get the second spot (in the Eastern Conference), and we ended up getting the fourth spot. I even told (Boston General Manager) Danny Ainge not to do the Kendrick Perkins deal with Oklahoma City. I told them I might not be ready, and I’m definitely not coming back. Those guys did what they’ve got to do. I wasn’t surprised; I’ve seen it before. They say all that blah, blah, but you know it’s always going to be something different.

And so here we go again, with Shaq’s comments sure to spawn yet another eruption of “What if?” fury in Boston. The giant red herring in the analysis of the Perkins/Green trade was that, on Boston’s end, it amounted to something of a wager that either Shaq or Jermaine O’Neal would be healthy for the playoffs. That analysis was far too simple. The Celtics have a smart front office, steeped in analytics, and though they are not afraid to gamble, they are not dumb enough to gamble on getting major playoff minutes from two creaky centers with deteriorating legs. Boston obviously would have preferred to have both O’Neals healthy; it played wonderfully early in the season with Shaq on the floor alongside the other four starters, and every team needs quality frontcourt depth in the playoffs.

But if the trade was a bet on any incumbent Celtic, it was a bet on Glen Davis, not Shaq. Davis and Kevin Garnett had been Boston’s go-to power forward-center combination all season, and the Celtics were ready to lean on that pair for 35 minutes (or more) per night in the playoffs.

Davis isn’t a star, but he has been a plus defender when paired with the yapping KG, and the Celtics like the way Big Baby’s mid-range jump shot can ease their spacing concerns a bit. That jumper has been inconsistent and was down last season, but Davis is willing to shoot it and teams generally at least pay it token respect. Teams don’t pay that kind of respect to Rajon Rondo’s jumper, and because the All-Star point guard has the ball a lot, the Celtics prefer to have as many semi-reliable shooters on the floor around him as possible.

The Celtics won a title with Perkins and Rondo in their starting lineup, but as the three stars surrounding them got older and a bit less dynamic as scorers, the spacing crunch that came with having two non-shooters on the floor at once began to strangle the offense. Boston ranked 15th in points per possession in 2009-10 and 19th last season, and it just about reached the tipping point where that so-so offense was going to torpedo the title hopes of one of the league’s best defensive teams. The Celtics remained a top-three defense even without Perkins and Shaq, and so they rightly had faith that they could sustain on that end without either one.

Perkins is a nice asset when he’s 100 percent, but he wasn’t close to full strength last season after recovering from a knee injury (and then suffering another one after his return). And so Boston gambled — on Davis, on its team chemistry, on Green’s ability to provide badly needed depth behind Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, and on the idea that Perkins, unwilling to sign the biggest extension Boston could offer, was a replaceable long-term part. (And remember: Boston got the Clippers’ protected 2012 first-rounder in that deal, something that could be a huge asset down the road.)

Shaq is right that the Perkins trade was a risky move, but it was much bigger than him.