Top 100 NBA Players — Nos. 91-100

I stole the general idea for this top 100 list from Joe Posnanski, who in March ranked the top 32 baseball players based on how he anticipated everyone would play in the upcoming season. That’s what these rankings are designed to do — spotlight the 100 best NBA players, regardless of salary or current team context, based on where they stand at this very moment, approaching the (still theoretical) 2011-12 season.

There is no objective criteria for these rankings. The list is represents my opinion after watching far too many basketball games, scouring every statistic available, recalling conversations I’ve had while reporting on the league and poring over hours and hours of clips on Synergy Sports. And even with all that information, separating some of these guys amounts to making an impossible subjective call.

The overarching goal here is to find two-way players. If you’ve been a regular reader of this blog, you know how much attention is paid to defense and efficiency with the ball. Those 18 points per game look nice in the box score, but if a player gets them by chucking up contested 20-foot jumpers and lazily watching opposing ball-handlers stroll into the lane, he’s going to have a hard time making this list (hi, Andray Blatche). A one-dimensional player seeking to make the top 65 or so better be darn good at that one dimension. Finding truly accomplished two-way players for the bottom 10 spots was basically impossible, making those places more a matter of taste than I’d like.

Ranking sophomores proved especially difficult, and only two made the list. I sought a balance between rewarding the potential for growth next season and punishing bad play already on the record, and that balance tilted against players with only one NBA season to their names. I’m with the group that believes DeMarcus Cousins has a very bright NBA future, but the glaring, near-historic (for a big man) inefficiencies of his rookie season keep him off this list for now, because immediate improvement is uncertain.

There are others I could list here, but on to the list we go. Stay tuned over the next two weeks as we roll out the remaining 90 guys on The Point Forward’s top 100:

Brandon Roy's potential for 2011-12 is unclear with his balky knees. (Albert Pena/Icon SMI)

100. BRANDON ROY
SG, Portland Trail Blazers
Age: 27
2010-11 Stats: 12.2 PPG, 40.0 FG%, 33.3 3PT%, 2.6 RPG, 2.7 APG

Yup, I’m using the last spot as a giant metaphorical shoulder shrug, because no one could have any reasonable idea where to rank Roy at this point. This seems like a fair compromise for a guy whose 2011-12 season could fall anywhere from “sits out the entire year after feeling knee pain in the first game” to “single-handedly wins a postseason game.” In his prime, Roy was one of the league’s 20 best players, a Kobe Bryant-type shooting guard who could create his own shot like a point guard, dish to teammates and finish from anywhere on the court.

Those are championship players capable of embracing the crunch-time burden, and Roy did it as well as anyone before knee problems crippled his game. That game is still in there, somewhere, as Roy showed in Game 4 of last season’s first-round series against Dallas, one of the greatest clutch performances you’ll ever see. But his defense has already suffered severely, and putting him much higher than this feels uncomfortable given all the uncertainty.

99. TONY ALLEN
SG, Memphis Grizzlies
Age: 29
2010-11 Stats: 8.9 PPG, 51.0 FG%, 17.4 3PT%, 2.7 RPG, 1.4 APG, 1.8 SPG

I said earlier that accomplished two-way players would be hard to find for the last few spots, and so here we have a guy who has been such an offensive liability for most of his career that he couldn’t get off the bench as an exhausted Celtics team lost a double-digit lead in Game 7 of the 2010 Finals. But a few things happened last season in Memphis to earn Allen this spot: He cut his turnover rate to a career low (11.3, down from 14.9 in 2009-10), made free throws at an acceptable rate (75.3 percent) and moved well off the ball when defenders left him alone on the perimeter.

All of this turned Allen into a nearly neutral offensive player, which is a huge win, considering he was perhaps the game’s best perimeter defender last season. The Grizzlies scored two fewer points per 100 possessions when Allen was on the floor, but they allowed nearly six fewer on defense, meaning he was a net positive in heavy minutes last season than ever before. No player stole the ball more often, per defensive possession, and Allen gets extra points for being able to defend both shooting guards and small forwards.

His lack of shooting range can still squeeze Memphis’ spacing on offense, which is why the Grizzlies had to reduce his minutes a bit during their last three playoff games against the Thunder. Allen’s almost 30, so he’s probably never going to be even an average outside shooter. If he starts turning the ball over like a mad man again, his minutes will drop and he’ll be off this list.

98. NICK COLLISON
PF, Oklahoma City Thunder
Age: 30
2010-11 Stats: 4.6 PPG, 56.6 FG%, 75.3 FT%, 4.5 RPG, 1.0 APG

Minutes concerns will keep a few guys off this list, so you’re justified for wondering why Collison makes it after averaging just 21 minutes per game over the last two seasons. But in that time, he has threatened Lamar Odom’s perch as the league’s random king of plus/minus. Good things just happen for Oklahoma City when Collison’s in the lineup: The Thunder outscored opponents by nine more points per 100 possessions when he was on the court in 2009-10 and a whopping 11 more points per 100 possessions last season.

Adjusted plus/minus stats, which seek to isolate one player’s contributions by taking into account the quality of teammates and opponents on the court, paint a similar picture of him as some mutant, game-changing force. Of course, Jeff Green, the man Collison often replaced, was a consistent plus/minus anchor, so next season should provide an interesting test case on his plus/minus greatness.

There’s also this: Collison is one of those rare well-rounded big men who does everything pretty well. He can defend every sort of play, from post-ups to pick-and-rolls, and on offense he scores off cuts, sets brutal screens, crashes the offensive glass and can stick an open 18-footer. He does all of this without screwing up, taking bad shots or turning the ball over. Re-watch a successful Thunder possession, and chances are pretty good you’ll see Collison doing some clever, unglamorous thing to grease the wheels.

97. SHANE BATTIER
SF, unrestricted free agent (Memphis Grizzlies)
Age: 32
2010-11 Stats: 7.6 PPG, 45.0 FG%, 38.2 3PT%, 4.5 RPG, 2.3 APG

If Tony Allen, Battier’s teammate in Memphis last season, is an “A+” or “A” defender, Battier is probably a “B+/A-” defender at this point. His defense has declined a bit with age — a slippage that shows up in his Synergy numbers — but he’s still an elite wing defender who can take on both shooting guards and small forwards. That versatility matters when you’re building a roster.

Unlike with Allen, you don’t have to worry about spacing when Battier is on the floor. He’ll reliably hit between 37 percent and 39 percent of his three-point attempts, and he’s a smart passer who doesn’t turn the ball over much. He’s not a threat to create his own shot, so teams can hide a weaker defender on him. Battier is a liability in that sense, but he has developed a nifty post-up game to punish subpar defenders who also happen to be undersized.

96. JOHN SALMONS
G-F, Sacramento Kings
Age: 31
2010-11 Stats: 14.0 PPG, 41.5 FG%, 37.9 3PT%, 3.6 RPG, 3.5 APG

Here is a name that will make fans of some of the snubbed players very unhappy. Salmons is about as nondescript as an NBA player gets, he’s almost 32 and he’s coming off a miserable shooting season with the Bucks in which he put up one of the lowest Player Efficiency Ratings (12.8) of his career.

But Salmons is a decent two-way player who should be able to fit on any roster, and an early-season knee injury explains at least some of his disastrous shooting last season. He increased his field-goal percentage each month, save for a small dip in February, and he can help in a lot of ways — spotting up, running a pick-and-roll, coming off screens and even in isolation. He ranked within the top third of all NBA players in points per possession in each of those situations last season, despite being miscast as a No. 1 option on a putrid Milwaukee offense.

Toss him into a role as a third or fourth option capable of playing both wing positions, and you’ve got something. He was a bit of a ball-stopper in Milwaukee, but I’m hoping you can chalk that up to the Bucks’ lack of scoring options and coach Scott Skiles’ strange affection for endless Salmons side pick-and-rolls.

Salmons is a decent defender, if a bit prone to overhelping. He doesn’t do any one thing at an “A” or even “A-” level, but he can do a lot of things at a “B-” level, and that’s enough to barely crack this list. As Mark Deeks of ShamSports fame pointed out recently on Twitter, Salmons has the kind of game that may not age well, so his spot here is precarious.

Lou Williams can draw fouls as well as any guard in the league. (Chris Szagola/Cal Sport Media)

95. LOUIS WILLIAMS
G, Philadelphia 76ers
Age: 24
2010-11 Stats: 13.7 PPG, 40.6 FG%, 34.8 3PT%, 2.0 RPG, 3.4 APG

Williams, the league’s most enthusiastic practitioner of the two-for-one, has a reputation as a poor defender stemming largely from his troubles with the pick-and-roll. He’s still learning this stuff, and he tends to run smack into screens, go under them when he shouldn’t and otherwise take himself out of the play at its starting point. But he works hard, should improve and his long arms help him contest spot-up shooters. (For what it’s worth, opponents shot just 33 percent against Williams in spot-up situations, one of the top 100 marks in the league last season, per Synergy.)

On offense, Williams’ field-goal percentage has been all over the place, but he seems to have settled in as a league-average three-point shooter, and he can draw fouls as well as any guard in the league. His ability to get to the line in a pinch is an important stabilizer for a mediocre Sixers offense prone to droughts. Williams is a decent passer, he can run a nice pick-and-roll and he’s a fearless (if perhaps overeager) late-game shooter. He just brings more to the table than a player like Ben Gordon, and there should still be some room for growth.

94. O.J. MAYO
SG, Memphis Grizzlies
Age: 23
2010-11 Stats: 11.3 PPG, 40.7 FG%, 36.4 3PT%, 2.4 RPG, 2.0 APG

Another semi-controversial choice, admittedly propelled by his postseason emergence as Memphis’ best defensive option on elite point guards. That probably said more about Mike Conley than Mayo, but Juice worked hard against Tony Parker and Russell Westbrook, and he generally held his own.

Placing him here also amounts to a bet that his shooting percentage will rebound back into the mid-40s, where it was in his first two seasons. Last season was a strange one for Mayo, who was demoted to a bench role after his 10-game suspension for using a banned substance. But even amid that chaos, he showed a decent all-around offensive game, including isolation attacks, Ray Allen-style runs around thickets of picks and 39 percent shooting on spot-up threes, according to Synergy. His catch-and-shoot skills opened a bit more space for Memphis’ big men in the paint.

Mayo is never going to be the kind of star the Grizzlies imagined when they swapped him for Kevin Love, and they might even unload him once business resumes. But he should be a solid player for a long time.

93. TY LAWSON
PG, Denver Nuggets
Age: 23
2010-11 Stats: 11.7 PPG, 50.3 FG%, 40.4 3PT%, 2.6 RPG, 4.7 APG

Based on per-minute production, Lawson should be higher. But the Nuggets keep acquiring more senior point guards who prevent Lawson from grabbing the position full time. That’s understandable, given Lawson’s relative inexperience running an NBA half-court offense and his so-so defense.

Lawson’s height (5-foot-11) will always be an issue against bully-type point guards, and he tends to get lost defending pick-and-roll plays. But in 26 minutes per game last season, Lawson was one of the league’s most efficient offensive players, pulling the rare double of 50 percent shooting from the floor and 40 percent from three-point range. He averaged 1.01 points per possession on isolation attacks — the 14th-best mark in the league among all players — and he was not especially turnover prone. His future is bright.

92. WILSON CHANDLER
SF, restricted free agent (Denver Nuggets)
Age: 24
2010-11 Stats: 15.3 PPG, 45.0 FG%, 35.0 3PT%, 5.7 RPG, 1.7 APG

Chandler has shown an intriguing mix of skills without being really great at any of them. He can credibly defend three positions (shooting guard through power forward), but opponents with elite quickness can punish him off the dribble and bigger guys can give him problems in the post.

Things are similar on the other side, where last season Chandler developed a useful three-point shot, played both parts of pick-and-rolls now and then and functioned well both off the ball and in transition. But he’s elite at none of these things (yet) and he rarely gets to the line or dishes. He can be a tricky roster fit; there’s a reason the Nuggets cut his minutes during their first-round loss to the Thunder, beyond the problems he had defending Kevin Durant.

The package of skills is good enough to get him on this list. Now: How much higher can he go?

91. MIKE CONLEY
PG, Memphis Grizzlies
Age: 23
2010-11 Stats: 13.7 PPG, 44.4 FG%, 36.9 3PT%, 3.0 RPG, 6.5 APG, 1.8 SPG

We all chuckled when the Grizzlies signed Conley to an extension that will pay him more than $9 million in 2015-16. But he began the process of playing up to that deal by upping his points, assists and free throws without seeing any parts of his game take a step back. Logging heavy minutes at the point during two pressure-packed playoff series counts for something.

But the caveats are still there, lurking in the numbers and on tape, and it wouldn’t shock me in a year if guys like Lawson and Darren Collison passed Conley on this list. The Grizzles remained one of the league’s 10 worst pick-and-roll teams, in terms of points per possession, and Conley’s inconsistency in getting deep into the lane had something to do with that. The Grizz also kept up their tradition of finishing last or second to last in assist rate, which measures the percentage of a team’s baskets that come via assists. Having two elite post-up threats (Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol) and one very good isolation guy (Rudy Gay) deflates that number, but Conley still hasn’t emerged as a dynamic distributor.

He’s a feisty defender, but he’s undersized and remains prone to gambling. He also has problems navigating screens on pick-and-roll plays. Coach Lionel Hollins’ move to make Mayo his primary point-guard defender for much of the Grizzlies’ playoff run speaks to Conley’s limitations.

Nevertheless, Conley improved last season. He’s a decent shooter and a relatively steady hand. There appears to be a higher ceiling still to reach.

JUST MISSED THE CUT …

After a memorable shooting performance in the 2009 playoffs, Ben Gordon's minutes and shots dropped last season in Detroit. (Michael Sackett/US Presswire)

• Ben Gordon, SG, Detroit Pistons: He was among the last three or four players cut, even though the memory of his insane shooting performance in Chicago’s first-round playoff loss to the Celtics in 2009 remains strong and scary. His minutes and shots dropped amid the “buffoonery” in Detroit, though his three-point percentage rebounded last season into elite territory. When Gordon’s not shooting, he’s not contributing much in the way of assists, defense or free throws, and two straight subpar seasons — not entirely of his own making — drop him out of this top 100, at least for now.

• Michael Beasley, F, Minnesota Timberwolves: I watched more tape on Beasley than any other player. And after all of it, I’m not sure Beasley is a net plus, over 48 minutes, despite his ability to generate a shot at will — an important crunch-time skill. Too many bad shots and too little spirit on defense, though he is solid in isolation situations on that end.

• J.R. Smith, SG, unrestricted free agent (Denver Nuggets): He made the initial list because of his shooting stroke and underrated pick-and-roll passing, but further study puts him in Beasley’s boat. Smith allowed his counterparts to score 1.02 points per possession last season, which ranked a dismal 434th among all NBA players who saw the floor. He was especially awful in spot-up situations, allowing an unthinkable 52 percent shooting from three-point range. The tape shows why: He’s a serial gambler who can be slow to recover, he has trouble finding his way around off-ball picks and his defensive stance is almost upright. Add in his questionable shot selection — the old “he’ll shoot you out of some games and into others” thing — and he’s a borderline candidate.

• DeMarcus Cousins, F-C, Sacramento Kings: The points and rebounding numbers are great for a rookie, but few heavy-minutes big men have shot so poorly and turned the ball over so often. A year from now, Cousins could easily be in the top 50-65.

• Brandon Jennings, PG, Milwaukee Bucks: One of the last cuts. I’ve addressed his game in detail here, and I’m hopeful he’ll crack this list a year from now.

• DeMar DeRozan, SG, Toronto Raptors: Ditto for DeRozan, whose ability to get to the line is promising but not enough — for now — given his limitations as a shooter and defender.

• Vince Carter, SG, Phoenix Suns: Declining fast.

• Marcus Camby, C, Portland Trail Blazers: Another of the final cuts, as Camby remains one of the league’s best rebounders on both ends of the court. But the 37-year-old’s rotations are getting slower, and big men who can hit from the mid-range give him problems because he does not want to get too far from the rim. He’s also barely an option on offense anymore, having used just 8.5 percent of Portland’s possessions in the playoffs.

• J.J. Hickson, PF, Sacramento Kings: If he’s not on this list a year from now, I’ll be angry. Hickson has the raw tools, but he has sabotaged himself and his team by taking too many mid-range jumpers and getting lost on defense.

• Nick Young, SG, restricted free agent (Washington Wizards): An elite mid-range shooter who can score without turning the ball over, in part because he rarely passes or creates for anyone else.

• Darren Collison, PG, Indiana Pacers: He’s a notch below the other young point guards in the bottom 50 of this list, but Collison has the potential to crack it next season, especially as he gets more comfortable defending the pick-and-roll with Indiana’s big men.

• Tyrus Thomas, PF, Charlotte Bobcats: He’ll be on this list a year from now if he plays a full 2011-12 season the same way he did the first 34 games of 2010-11, when he put up a Player Efficiency Rating around 20 and looked to be harnessing his game.

• Aaron Brooks, PG, restricted free agent (Phoenix Suns): See Collison, and add in some unbridled chucking.

• Samuel Dalembert, C, unrestricted free agent (Sacramento Kings): A very puzzling player to deal with. He’s an elite rebounder and shot-blocker who has generally helped his team’s defense over the last half-dozen seasons, but at 30 years old, he already looks at times as if he’s moving in molasses. He doesn’t get to the line much, and he has shot below 50 percent in two of his last three seasons — not what you want from a giant.

• JaVale McGee, C, Washington Wizards: Not quite there yet, despite the highlight reel plays and obvious potential — and the fact that the best publicly available adjusted plus/minus system adores him. Last season was McGee’s first as a full-time, heavy-minutes rotation player, and he led the league in block rate (6.7 percent), sustained an above-average PER (17.42) and upped his field-goal percentage (55.5). All of that is encouraging. If he keeps it up and adds a post-up game, he’ll be here after next season.

• Kris Humphries, PF, unrestricted free agent (New Jersey Nets): I’m a fan, but scratching out a double-double on a bad Nets team and playing alongside a poor rebounding center (Brook Lopez) won’t get you on this list — especially because the 2010-11 season was the first in which Humphries averaged more than 18 minutes per game.

• Antawn Jamison, F, Cleveland Cavaliers: The flip shots are pretty and a “stretch four” is a handy thing to have, but I’m not sure how much Jamison would play, given his defensive limitations, on a decent team. Age (35) is a factor here, too.

• Marcus Thornton, SG, restricted free agent (Sacramento Kings): His late-season scoring spree in Sacramento isn’t enough, I’m afraid, though he’s a Point Forward League Pass favorite. He could never carve out a full-time rotation spot in New Orleans, and he way too many defensive lapses. Still, he’s brimming with potential, he showed last season he can run a decent pick-and-roll and he looks to be a key part of Sacramento’s future.