Who would want free agent Richardson?

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Jason Richardson said winning is more important to him than getting a lucrative deal. (Gary W. Green/MCT /Landov)

At his annual golf charity event in mid-July, Jason Richardson, perhaps the best free-agent shooting guard, told reporters he is more concerned with winning than banking as much money as possible on his next deal (per The Saginaw News):

“I want to go to a great place for my family,” Richardson said. “I’ve been blessed by God to play in the NBA for a lot of money. I’d like to go someplace that has a chance to win a championship.”

This is good, because Richardson is 30 and sliding into the portion of his career where he’ll make a great third or (even better) fourth option on a good team but isn’t capable anymore of being a first- or second-tier scorer. He’s mostly a catch-and-shoot guy now, and he can do that very well in a variety of ways — off screens, in transition and in the spot-up situations that are plentiful in Orlando, at least when the Magic aren’t facing Jason Collins. He can run a pick-and-roll in a pinch and can post up smaller guys, but those are secondary skills for Richardson at this point.

Richardson is a mid-level exception-type player now, and if the new cap system maintains both a soft cap structure and the mid-level exception, several contenders could use his services. If next season’s cap structure looks pretty much like the 2010-11 version, all the realistic title contenders are set to be either over the cap or left with so little space they’ll be out of the running for a player on Richardson’s level. Of course, several variables could change this picture — an amnesty clause that allows teams to shed one onerous contract from their cap number, the abolition of the mid-level exception, the immediate institution of a hard cap (extremely unlikely), a rollback of current salaries and several others.

All of this makes projecting Richardson’s next destination a thorny exercise, but it’s one worth thinking about. Here are some candidates, based on need, available minutes, team quality and money:

Orlando: It’s always best to bet on the incumbent team, since the new CBA will likely maintain a soft-cap structure for at least another couple of seasons, along with Bird Rights-style rules that allow teams to go over the cap in signing their own free agents. Orlando will be a quality team as long as it can surround Dwight Howard with capable players. Plus, the Magic might not feel comfortable handing over the shooting guard position full-time to the combination of J.J. Redick (the likely starter if Richardson bolts), Gilbert Arenas and another possible free-agent signing.

Orlando might be a step behind Miami and Chicago (and possibly Boston) in the East, but it’s a small step, and one the Magic could take with a little luck. They may still provide the best combination of fit, minutes and money, since Richardson could be leaving some significant cash on the table by settling more the mid-level with the likes of …

Chicago: This is a team we’ll hear associated with every free-agent shooting guard, and with good reason. The Bulls need more scoring and spacing than Keith Bogans can provide by standing in the corner. Think about how much more efficiently they scored with Kyle Korver at two-guard spot, running around screens and creating openings for others. Richardson can duplicate those skills and is a better defender than Korver. He’d be a better fit in a lot of ways than Jamal Crawford or J.R. Smith, two other prominent free-agent two-guards, since those guys both have shot-selection issues and often dominate the ball.

Chicago has about $63.6 million in committed salaries for next season, and with no legitimate amnesty candidate beyond C.J. Watson, it will probably be over the cap or at least right up against it. As such, it’ll probably need the mid-level to chase a guy like Richardson.

The rest of the contenders either have a starting two-guard who would trump Richardson in the rotation or roster/cap issues that would make signing him troublesome. Some examples of teams that pop up now and then when people mention Richardson:

Boston: The Celtics could clearly use some wing depth behind Ray Allen and Paul Pierce, but they’re set to be over the cap and need size badly. Richardson would also have to settle for a backup role here.

Dallas: The Mavs could lose Caron Butler, DeShawn Stevenson, Peja Stojakovic and J.J. Barea from their wing/guard rotation, and Richardson would add some offensive punch to the champs’ starting lineup by replacing Stevenson. (He’d be a downgrade on the other end.) The Mavs are well over last year’s cap level, and they have to prioritize re-signing Tyson Chandler above all else. They also dealt for Rudy Fernandez on draft night and have Roddy Beaubois waiting in the wings. Still, if the mid-level exists and the rules allow Mark Cuban to spend big one last time, he might make a run at another scorer.

Los Angeles Lakers: They need a veteran to back up Kobe Bryant, right? They may lose Shannon Brown, but they’re already on the books for nearly $90 million next season, not including money for their second-round draft picks. Richardson probably isn’t ready to settle into a minor bench role.

Memphis: The Grizzlies will almost certainly be over the cap if they re-sign Marc Gasol  (and will be effectively over it once free agency starts, given Gasol’s cap hold), and there’s a bit of a two-guard logjam here with Tony Allen, O.J. Mayo, Sam Young and Xavier Henry set to compete for minutes. Richardson would provide more consistent offense than any of them, but this feels like a pipe dream.

New York: The Knicks could use three-point range and some dynamism at shooting guard, and Richardson would probably slide right into their starting lineup ahead of Landry Fields. That switch could hurt New York’s already-impaired defense, and it would have to be very cautious about taking on any more long-term salary if it’s serious about pursuing Chris Paul/Howard/Deron Williams in free agency next summer. A one-year deal could work, but if Richardson is truly serious about winning a title, this still isn’t the place for it.

The Hornets loom as a possible wild card. They are desperate for scoring at two-guard, and they could wind up well under the cap if David West, Carl Landry and Marco Belinelli all end up elsewhere. On the flip side, re-signing even two of those guys could take New Orleans over the cap, putting the mid-level exception in play (if it exists). We know the cautionary notes: The NBA currently owns the team, meaning any major spending could be dicey, and the team has to prep as best it can for Paul’s possible free agency.

  • Published On 12:18pm, Jul 14, 2011