Mavs have clear edge heading into Game 6

LaMarcus Aldridge's scoring has dipped in each game as Tyson Chandler's defense has limited him mostly to tough mid-range looks. (Glenn James/NBAE via Getty Images)

The Dallas-Portland series has been ridiculously entertaining in spurts, but it is perhaps not as close as the 3-2 margin and the nail-biting vibe might suggest.

The Mavericks have outscored the Blazers by 24 points combined over five games, Portland needed a borderline miracle to win Game 4 at home and Nate McMillan just hasn’t been able to pull enough winning lineups out of his versatile roster. That’s not his fault, really. The Blazers are thin, rife with inconsistent players, prone to spacing issues when both Andre Miller and Gerald Wallace are on the floor and are perhaps a bit too reliant on hitting perimeter shots.

That said, the Blazers are a home win from forcing a Game 7. Here are some things to watch Thursday night:

• Who will be the scoring threat the Blazers desperately need? 

LaMarcus Aldridge’s scoring has dropped in each game as Tyson Chandler’s defense has limited the Portland big man mostly to tough mid-range looks. He can hit those shots, but the Blazers can’t go into Thursday’s game reliant on Aldridge netting 30. Beyond Aldridge, the Blazers’ most consistent scorer has probably been Miller, and that’s a scary thought. Miller is shooting a robust 44 percent on mid-range jumpers, and he has already hit as many threes in this series (four) as he did in the entire regular season. Forgotten amid the Brandon Roy hoopla is the fact that Miller’s mid-range shots, on pick-and-roll plays and in the post against Dallas’ little guards, kept Portland afloat in Game 4.

Roy has alternated between scintillating dominance and shaky play on both ends, which is to be expected given his knee issues. Rudy Fernandez has vanished, despite having many plays called for him in an attempt to get him involved on the perimeter and in the post against J.J. Barea. Wallace has made three shots from outside the restricted area all series, and neither Nicolas Batum nor the super-active Wesley Matthews has emerged as a consistent scoring threat.

The Blazers cannot win this way. Wallace and Matthews are the best bets to pick up the slack; both are hyperactive in transition and in the half-court, and many of Portland’s bread-and-butter sets involve them screening for each other along the baseline in order to create space or force switches.

Dallas has gotten major scoring production from someone other than Dirk Nowitzki in every game save for Game 4. Jason Terry and Shawn Marion combined for 34 points in Game 5, and Marion especially has stayed involved both on plays designed for him (particularly on the block) and on the improvisational stuff he does so well — cuts from the weak side on pick-and-roll plays, and steals he creates when he can sniff out Portland’s plan.

• Can McMillan find a Batum lineup that works?

Portland’s biggest asset is its positional versatility, and Batum is the heart of that. But it has not worked to Portland’s benefit in this series. Of the nine lineups that include Batum and have logged at least five minutes together, only one has a positive scoring margin, and seven of the eight groups with negative margins have been absolutely torched. In particular, lineups with Wallace, Batum and either Marcus Camby or Aldridge at center have been awful on both ends.

It’s hard to tell what exactly is going on here in such a small sample size, but it’s clear Portland’s versatility has not bothered Dallas at all. Does McMillan have an answer in Game 6? Will he go back to the ultra-big lineup, with Batum as the nominal shooting guard, that gave Dallas problems early in this series?

• Guarding Dirk

Nowitzki is going to get his points, but how he gets them is important. He’s earned 41 free throw attempts in Dallas’ three home wins and just 11 in the two games in Portland. The Blazers need that trend to continue Thursday.

But they also need a coherent plan for defending Nowitzki pick-and-roll plays. Portland’s coaches have said they’d prefer to avoid switching on those plays (and thus leaving a poor guard to deal with Dirk), but they have been inconsistent at sticking to that plan. That inconsistency is excusable: Tracking Nowitzki without switching offers him an opening, since his guy (usually Aldridge) must tend to the ball-handler before darting back to Dirk. That sliver is all Nowitzki needs to hit a jumper or fake, drive and draw contact.

Camby is just not quick enough anymore to defend this play effectively. Aldridge is much better, but guarding Nowitzki full time is exhausting. Batum and Wallace have both had chances, but neither is big enough to win the battle more than they lose it. Portland might have to consider double-teaming Nowitzki more than it has so far.

One note: Batum is a key ingredient here because he can defend point guards (especially Jason Kidd) and thus switch onto Nowitzki without leaving Portland at a massive size disadvantage. But in that case, the Mavs will turn to another ball-handler — Barea or Terry — to work the two-man game.

Good luck, Portland.

• The battle of the boards 

Dallas ranked 26th in offensive rebounding during the regular season, while Portland ranked third. But in the playoffs Dallas has actually rebounded a higher percentage of its own misses than have the Blazers, who have posted an offensive rebounding rate through five games that would have ranked next-to-last in the regular season. Think about that: The Mavs have turned a top-three offensive rebounding club into the Celtics. That’s pretty amazing, and Chandler’s presence in the middle has a lot to do with it.

The Mavs are winning the battle of the boards handily when Chandler is on the floor, and he grabbed a ridiculous 13 offensive boards in Game 5. The rebounding numbers are close to even when Chandler hits the bench — yet another reason Portland benefits when the center gets in foul trouble.

Aldridge’s offensive rebounding rate has dropped by nearly half compared to the regular season, and Camby, Portland’s best offensive rebounder, has seen his minutes drop to about 20 per game as the Blazers search for offense.

• Turnovers

This was a battle Portland figured to win. Only Memphis forced more turnovers, per possession, than Portland during the regular season, and Dallas ranked in the bottom third of the league in protecting the ball. But the Mavs have managed to be more careful with the ball in this slowed-down series, helping to snuff out the fast-break chances on which Portland thrives.

The Blazers are desperate for offense. Dallas must take extra care not to give the Blazers a half-dozen or so points.

• PREDICTION: I went with Dallas in six at the start of the playoffs. No reason to change now.