Looking ahead to Boston vs. Miami: Part I

Game 1 of Heat-Celtics is Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC. (Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images)

This is the series most NBA fans have wanted more than any other since the moment LeBron said the words “South Beach” last July. It is here, now: Boston against Miami, best of seven, for the right to play either the Bulls, Magic or Hawks in the conference finals. This is happening one round earlier than many of us anticipated, and it may well turn out to have little bearing on who wins the title. But it is going to be a bloodbath, and it’s going to generate more fan interest (barring a blowout series) than any conference semifinal in history.  

We’re breaking our preview into two parts, starting with things to watch when the Heatles have the ball:

(Part II: When Boston has the ball …)

• Commitment to team

With about one minute left in their series-clinching win over Philadelphia on Wednesday night, the Heat ran the sort of play I’ve dubbed a Play Of Death — a fast-moving set in which all three Miami stars are involved in an active way. The play, which Erik Spoelstra called out of a timeout, started with LeBron James handling the ball at the top of the three-point arc, Dwyane Wade standing on the right wing and Chris Bosh just below Wade on the right baseline. And, then, in blinding succession:

1. Wade darts down toward the baseline and sets a screen on Chris Bosh’s man (Elton Brand) as Bosh runs full speed toward Wade.  

2. Bosh, with a bit of space on Brand, continues sprinting toward James and sets a screen to the right of LeBron’s man (Evan Turner) near the three-point line.

3. As Bosh rolls down the lane, presenting himself as one option, James dribbles toward Wade, who is cutting up from the baseline to James.

4. James hands of the ball off to Wade and simultaneously sets a screen on Wade’s man (Andre Iguodala), allowing Wade to turn the corner and drive toward the foul line while James rolls into open space. 

All of this takes fewer than three seconds, and the Sixers defend it perfectly. Brand sticks pretty close to Bosh, and Turner switches from James to Wade to try to contain Wade’s drive. 

And guess what? It doesn’t matter. The action, even defended without error, has given Wade the sliver he needs to get into the paint. Even worse: Stationed on the weak side are James Jones and Mario Chalmers, capable three-point shooters. Help off one of them to stop Wade, and he’ll kick it out. 

This stuff is nearly impossible to defend, and it’s not a coincidence that it came after a timeout. The problem is that Miami’s commitment to this kind of action often wanes the further away they get from a timeout huddle. That’s understandable, to some degree; it’s impossible within the chaotic flow of the game to run pristine sets anytime you want. And any play involving just two of the three stars in an active way — the Wade/Bosh pick-and-roll Miami ran on the two possessions before this one, for instance — is still dangerous enough to cause problems for elite defenses. And James, even when just standing around, is a more dangerous kickout option than any other player. 

But there are still too many possessions where one of the two perimeter stars is standing around while the other dominates the ball. Again, some of this is inevitable. But too much of it makes Miami easier to defend; even if James and Wade are dangerous kickout options on the perimeter, there’s only so much a guy can do can if he gets the ball standing flat-footed 25 feet from the hoop with three seconds on the shot clock — especially since Wade and James are not elite jump-shooters. 

The Celtics have the nastiest defense in the league, and they will load up on the strong side to stop your initial play. They’re fantastic at rotating and recovering, and they will invite James and Wade to take contested jump shots late in the shot clock. 

Miami will need to play at its best to beat this defense. That means creative pick-and-rolls, including the Wade/James combination Spoelstra has turned to more often late in the season. It means that when Wade or James isn’t involved in the main play on a given possession, he must be ready to cut back-door along the baseline (something Wade does well) or do something else in order to make himself a threat.

• Miami’s options at center

We saw in the Boston-New York series that the Celtics are happy to ignore a defense-first non-scorer in order to give more attention to a superstar. The Heat have started Zydrunas Ilgauskas at center for the entire postseason, but they have functioned better on both ends with the ultra-mobile Joel Anthony in his place. Anthony is a much better defender than Ilgauskas overall and specifically against a Boston front that isn’t very tall without Shaquille O’Neal. But like Jared Jeffries and Ronny Turiaf before him, Anthony lacks range, touch and a willingness to shoot the ball. 

His presence did not harm Miami’s offense against Philadelphia, a solid defensive club, but Boston is a different animal. If he starts or logs heavy minutes, Anthony has to be a willing scorer around the rim. 

• If Heat stick with smaller lineup …

This applies on both ends, but we’ll cover it here. Miami played small, with LeBron James at power forward, quite a bit against the small-ish Sixers, and it tried it for a few stretches in its final two regular-season games against Boston. The Heat went small early in the season mostly at the end of the first and third quarters, when Bosh and Wade went out for a rest, but they gradually incorporated both other stars into various small lineup combinations alongside LeBron. 

Boston has rarely gone small since the Big Three came together four years ago, so it will be interesting to see how it’ll respond when the Heat try this. Jeff Green’s ability to work as a small-ball power forward is presumably one reason Boston traded for him, but the idea of Green guarding James one-on-one is sort of frightening for Boston fans. 

If Boston opts to keep two true big guys on the floor, one of them is going to have to guard Mike Miller or James Jones, since the Celtics will want to keep a wing player on James regardless of what position LeBron plays. A guy like Glen Davis isn’t used to defending a spot-up shooter like Jones, and Miami has gotten a lot of easy triples this season when big men drift away from Jones in exactly this situation.

• Transition buckets

An obvious one: The Heat led the league in points per possession on transition chances this season, according to the stat-tracking service Synergy Sports. James and Wade might be the two best open-court players in the league, and when they don’t finish with a dunk, they draw a ton of fouls. Boston has been one of the most turnover-prone teams in the league for four seasons running, and their bad habits will be particularly dangerous here. 

The Heat understand how good Boston’s half-court defense is, and they will be looking to run off turnovers and misses. Watch out. 

• With or without a true point guard

We’ve seen it off and on all season, and we saw it again for about 8:30 of the fourth quarter in Miami’s Game 5 win against the Sixers. The Heat will trot out lineups that include no traditional point guard and no player the size of a traditional point guard (i.e. no Eddie House). The dream lineup earlier in the season featured Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller alongside the Miami’s big three, but the Heat have had to settle more recently for Anthony in Haslem’s role and Jones in Miller’s role. 

That particular group shouldn’t give Boston’s defense too many problems, since Rajon Rondo can defend Jones. Miller would present more issues with his ability to go off the dribble and work in the post. 

• Chris Bosh vs. Kevin Garnett

Boston provides a constant reminder that defense is as much — and probably more — about team principles than one-on-one matchups. Plus, by now, we’re all aware of the usual matchups: Paul Pierce will guard James. Ray Allen will guard Wade. And Garnett will guard Bosh, with some relief from Glen Davis. 

The first two tilt in favor of the Heat, which is why Boston will overload the strong side and send aggressive help in and near the paint. 

The Bosh-Garnett battle is a toss-up, and while it’s a stretch to say it will turn the series, Miami cannot afford Bosh to cower from the matchup that both men have probably thought quite a bit about this season. Garnett remains the league’s best big man defender outside of Dwight Howard, and you know he’s going to be banging, woofing and running around like a maniac. Bosh has seen this before, but he has never seen it in a seven-game hothouse with the world watching. 

The Heat will need Bosh, in moments, to be more than just the pick-and-pop option who serves as the fulcrum for their offense. They will need him to drive, get to the line and bail them out of possessions gone bad. 

Is he ready for it?