Monday Musings: Lakers back as favorites

Andrew Bynum is playing the best all-around ball of his career, averaging 12.3 rebounds and 11.8 points on 62.6 percent shooting since the All-Star break. (Noah Graham/NBAE via Getty Images)

We’re 70-plus games into a season of franchise-altering transactions and hourly emotional swings for fans, and yet we are back right where we started: The Los Angeles Lakers are the favorites to win the NBA title.

The only thing that could make me waver from that stance is if the Lakers, currently one game up on Dallas, somehow slip to the third seed in the Western Conference. Falling from second to third is a very bad thing, historically, but even that might not be enough to sway me. The Lakers have been so splendid since the All-Star break that it is hard to anoint anyone else the favorite now, particularly with San Antonio dealing with injury issues and the Celtics dealing with whatever the Celtics deal with in early spring.

In their 15-1 stretch since the All-Star break, the Lakers have scored 109.3 points per 100 possessions, according to Hoopdata. Only one team — Denver — has a better mark over the full season. On defense, the Lakers have surrendered just 99 points per 100 possessions in that 16-game run; only the Bulls and Celtics have been stingier, and the gap vanishes once you consider that the Lakers have played a strong schedule in that span.

Put simply, the Lakers are playing both offense and defense better than anyone else. They’re also as healthy as any veteran-heavy team can expect to be now. Ron Artest is surging, Pau Gasol’s mid-range jumper has reached the point where it should inspire terror in opposing fans upon release, and Andrew Bynum is playing the best all-around ball of his career. In doing so, Bynum is helping change the Lakers’ identity in a way that makes them fit more closely the conventional notion of a “playoff-style” team (if you believe in such things). And even so, they remain unconventional in ways that make them extra difficult to deal with.

The Lakers have quietly morphed into a slow-it-down team on offense. For the first time in the Kobe/Gasol era, L.A. is averaging fewer possessions per game than the league average. This is a pretty shocking thing, considering that L.A. has played at one of the fastest paces in the league for most of the last three seasons (though the slow-down began last season). No team turns the ball over less, and the Lakers, with Bynum healthy, have been a very good defensive rebounding team. You can no longer cling to the hope that the slower, tougher style of the playoffs will handicap this team.

You can see the impact of their size in something that is unusual among the league’s best defenses: They allow opponents to shoot a ton of three-pointers. As the three has become more accepted as a crucial scoring weapon, limiting three-point attempts has turned into one of the bedrock principles of top-level defenses in Boston, Chicago, Orlando and San Antonio — and to a lesser extent in Philadelphia and Milwaukee. Not so with the Lakers. Only the Timberwolves have allowed more three-point attempts, but opponents just can’t knock them down against L.A.; the Lakers rank second, behind only Miami, in three-point defense, and they also led the league in that category last season. This rare double comes from the fact that the Lakers smartly tilt their defense away from so-so perimeter shooters, and it suggests opponents take threes out of weakness — an inability to deal with L.A.’s interior defense — rather than opportunism.

But there’s something even more central to the Lakers’ defensive excellence, and it is also something that has carried over from last season: They rarely foul. They are, in fact, close to becoming the least foul-prone team in NBA history. Consider: The Lakers have yielded 19.4 foul shots per game. Only eight teams have ever allowed fewer than 20 per game over a full season, and if the Lakers keep playing like they are now, they will break the all-time record (19.3). Since the All-Star break, Los Angeles has given up only 18.4 free throws a game — an unthinkable number.

And if you prefer free throw rate, which measures free throws allowed per shot attempt and thus factors in pace, the Lakers are on a historic pace there, too. Only six other teams have allowed so few free throws per shot attempt, and only one of those six (the 2004-05 Suns) played in the post-hand-checking era.

Again, this isn’t a fluke: The Lakers came within a hair of leading the league in this category last season, and they have somehow pulled off the extremely unusual double whammy of limiting both opponent free throws and holding opponents to a dismal three-point percentage — while permitting a ton of attempts.

The Lakers are just a different animal, on both sides of the ball, and at their peak they are the best team in the NBA. That doesn’t guarantee a championship, obviously: The Lakers barely won it last season, and they won’t have home-court advantage in the West (barring a Spurs catastrophe). They trail the Bulls by a game in the loss column in that home-court race, and both the Heat and Celtics could pass L.A. by the end of the season. If there’s a chink here, that’s it — the possibility that the Lakers won’t have home-court advantage after the first two rounds.

The way they’re playing now, though, it might not matter. These Lakers are your title favorites.

10 THINGS I LIKE AND DON’T LIKE

Derrick Rose has almost mastered the art of passing through traffic on pick-and-rolls, especially involving Carlos Boozer. (Damian Strohmeyer/SI)

1. Derrick Rose’s pocket passing

Your near-certain MVP has improved many aspects of his game — his three-point shooting, his defense and his ability to get to the line, to name a few. But don’t overlook how confident he’s become in threading those quick-hit bounce passes through traffic on pick-and-rolls, especially involving Carlos Boozer. It’s a tough art to master, and Rose has it almost nailed.

As a side note, while Rose is a questionable choice as MVP (though not a poor one, by any means), he has passed LeBron James and others in the Most Exciting Player derby. As I watched a recording of the Bulls-Bucks game on Sunday morning, I had to stop the DVR four separate times and be the annoying guy who forces his girlfriend to watch replays of spectacular plays. That was a season high in our apartment.

2. Hakim Warrick’s defensive positioning and the demise of the Suns

The Suns are finished in the playoff race after consecutive losses to the Hornets and Mavs, but it was that New Orleans loss on Friday that really killed them. And that game provided a great example of why Warrick has not been able to earn consistent minutes over the last few seasons despite knockout athleticism, a reliable mid-range jumper and an ability to finish the pick-and-roll strong. His defensive positioning has always been shaky, and when Phoenix used a zone down the stretch of that game, he failed repeatedly to patrol his side of the floor, resulting in several easy finishes for New Orleans’ bigs. Warrick is a nice player, but he has to get better at this.

3. Marcus Thornton torching everyone

This guy has been dynamite since the Kings nabbed him in exchange for Carl Landry at the trade deadline, a deal that looks more like a big Sacramento win every day. In a bizarre twist, David West’s season-ending injury makes this trade look better for New Orleans, which needs Landry to fill West’s role. But before West got hurt, the Hornets’ biggest weakness was a lack of perimeter scoring from everyone but Chris Paul, and yet here is Thornton, averaging 22 points per game on 47 percent shooting (43 percent from deep) for Sacramento.

There are caveats, of course. Thornton can gun almost as much as he likes in Sacramento, and his defense, especially off the ball, remains an issue. But still: Thornton is cheap (the Kings have a team option on him worth about $1.06 million next season) and brings a skill the Hornets need more than any other.

Also: The Kings have tossed Thornton into a lot of pick-and-rolls as a ball-handler, and he has looked decent in those chances. He can split a double team beautifully, and he’s averaging 3.4 assists — up from 0.9 this season as a Hornet.

4. Chris Andersen’s distraction clap

The Birdman’s entertainment value is high and his activity on defense often helps Denver, but his habit of clapping his hands together over his head as he closes out on a shooter annoys me. It just seems cheap, like something the irritating guy in your pick-up game might do in order to come across as “scrappy” and someone who “really cares about winning.”

For reasons I can’t entirely explain, I find it a bit less annoying (and almost charming) when bench guys stand up and shout at nearby shooters.

5. The Kevin Martin/Luis Scola reverse curl

The Rockets are still holding out some postseason hope, but we’re probably going to be saying goodbye soon to Houston and Rick Adelman’s gorgeous, super-efficient offense. One little nugget I enjoy comes when Kevin Martin and Luis Scola run a play that sort of reverses one common type of movement we see from shooting guards everywhere — the play where a 2-guard, such as Rip Hamilton or Ray Allen, will cut from one side of the baseline to the other and curl up to the perimeter around a big man’s screen.

Watch Houston, and you’ll see sets that start with Martin above the three-point line and Scola stationed at the elbow, on the same side of the floor. Martin will then cut down, take a screen from Scola and continue toward the baseline as another Houston player handles the ball on the other side of the court.

If the play works, Martin will draw the attention of Scola’s defender, forcing that guy to sag down toward the hoop and help on Martin. At that point, Scola, freed up a bit, will dart down the middle of the paint, behind the Martin cut. That’s when someone will pass to Scola, who can finish either form mid-range or drive to the hole. It’s a fun little set.

6. Andres Nocioni suddenly back in the rotation as a would-be “stopper”

I’ve learned to sit back and trust 76ers coach Doug Collins, but this one hasn’t convinced me yet. After falling out of the rotation, Nocioni is back in and logging brief stints as a three-point threat (something Philadelphia needs) and a bench stopper. He has taken turns defending LeBron James and Tyreke Evans (to predictably bad results) over the last few days.

The minutes have come in part at the expense of Evan Turner, so it’s not as if Nocioni – if he maintains this role — will be stealing minutes from a crucial cog in Philadelphia’s rise. The jury is still out here, but I worry that this amounts to a veteran getting the benefit of the doubt for no real reason.

7. Lou Williams’ commitment to the 2-for-1 concept at the end of quarters

This is a “like” more than a “dislike,” if only because you can almost feel, through the television, how thrilled Philadelphia’s Williams is when he is bringing the ball up with 40 or fewer seconds left on the clock in one of the first three quarters. Williams is a gunner at heart, and he’ll take any excuse to pull up from 30 feet without even thinking about a pass. He might actually think a 3-for-1 is possible if he shoots quickly enough; he fired up one of these babies (a 26-footer!) with 40 seconds left in the second quarter against the Kings on Sunday, perhaps not realizing he had shot so quickly that he had given Sacramento a chance at the 2-or-1.

You have to admire commitment to an ideal, right?

8. Luol Deng handling the ball

We’ll give the Bulls two “likes” today, since their play over the last two months merits it. Deng is known mostly as a mid-range shooter and defensive ace, but don’t overlook his ability as a ball-handler and passer. The Bulls run a fair number of pick-and-rolls every game involving Deng as the ball-handler, and he has also gotten better at coming off screens, catching the ball and then either dishing it to a big man underneath or dribbling into the paint. It’s not an accident that Deng’s assist numbers have jumped even though he plays most of his minutes with a point guard who dominates the ball.

9. The Dwyane Wade/LeBron James pick-and-roll

Miami is using it more, and it’s working. It reminds me a lot of the Russell Westbrook-Kevin Durant pick-and-roll, in that both teams tend to run this play on the side of the floor rather than in the middle, and because both plays involve guys so quick that defenses either have to switch (thus creating a small but important size mismatch) or risk losing lots of ground. Watch out.

10. James Harden joining the “kick your legs out” crowd.

You know I love the way the Thunder’s Harden has been playing in general lately, but is it me, or has he become the league’s foremost practitioner of the semi-dirty leg kick at the end of a jump shot? It’s a blatant attempt at drawing a foul, one mastered by lots of “wily” stars, including Reggie Miller and Karl Malone. A few officials have actually called offensive fouls on Harden when he does this, and I’m all for policing this play more aggressively by calling more offensive fouls.