Gay is done for season; are Grizzlies, too?

Grizzlies forward Rudy Gay will undergo season-ending shoulder surgery. (Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images)

The Grizzlies got the unexpected news that Rudy Gay’s partially dislocated left shoulder requires season-ending surgery. The development comes with Memphis poised to make its first post-(Pau) Gasol playoff appearance to complete a regular season in which Gay has shown major improvement as an all-around player.

The knee-jerk reaction is to say that Memphis’ playoff hopes have taken a major hit, and the Rockets and Suns have been given new life. There is truth to that; the Grizzlies are only one game up in the loss column over the Suns and two over the Rockets – and the latter, strong in John Hollinger’s playoff odds calculator, have a cupcake-heavy schedule the rest of the way. Gay is Memphis’ primary shot creator in clutch, half-court situations, and teams will be able to give even more attention to Zach Randolph now on those crucial possessions. Houston has already won the tiebreaker over Memphis by virtue of a 3-1 edge in the head-to-head series, and given the advantage Memphis currently holds in what would be the next two tiebreakers (record against division and conference opponents, in that order), Houston’s overtime win over Memphis on Feb. 5 that clinched the head-to-head series looms as a monstrously important win.

And even so: If I had put money on the Grizzlies making the playoffs, I wouldn’t feel terrible about making that bet today. The Grizzlies have the tiebreaker in hand over Phoenix, and they’ve got plenty of talent on the wing now that O.J. Mayo is back and Shane Battier is on board. Memphis’ remaining schedule is almost as easy as Houston’s, and it will get substantially easier once the Grizz get through their next three games — roadies against Boston and Chicago, and a home game against the Spurs. Gay was going to miss those games anyway, and that Spurs game got a bit more winnable when Tim Duncan turned his ankle Monday night against Golden State. After that, Memphis has five of its final eight games at home and only three against winning teams. Toss in the two-game edge in the loss column over Houston and Phoenix’s more difficult schedule, and odds systems like Hollinger’s would probably still favor Memphis, despite the bad news about Gay.

There’s also this: The Grizzlies have survived with Gay over their last 14 games. They are 8-6 and have scored at a much higher rate than their season average. Memphis is averaging 108.3 points per 100 possessions in those 14 games, up from a season average of about 104, according to Hoopdata. Two games against the putrid Knicks defense helped in that regard, but Memphis also put up above-average offensive performances against the Spurs, Thunder, Mavericks, Nuggets and Pacers. The offense sputtered against Miami and New Orleans, but that has happened to a lot of teams this season. Overall, Memphis is getting to the line at the same rate (once you factor in the schedule) without Gay, grabbing about the same number of offensive boards and shooting threes as infrequently as ever.

If there’s a larger concern, it’s on the other end, where Memphis has taken a huge step back without Gay. Memphis has allowed about 106 points per 100 possessions over those 14 games, up from their season average of 102.9, and it’s been stingier with Gay on the court all season. That jump represents the approximate difference between the 10th- and 20th-ranked defensive teams in the league. There’s a good-news-bad-news thing happening here if you break down the numbers even more: Memphis is getting torched by elite offensive teams and clamping down on bad ones. Eight of those 14 games have come against teams in the top half of the league’s points per possession rankings, and the Grizz allowed north of 110 points per 100 possessions — what the league’s worst defense gives up — in six of those eight games.

This really isn’t a surprise. With or without Gay, the Memphis defense relies to an unhealthy degree on forcing turnovers. It has forced them a bit more often since Gay’s injury, though it’s hard to tell if that’s the product of luck, scheduling or more playing time for guys who like to gamble (Sam Young and Tony Allen). Most of Memphis’ backcourt players love to gamble, and good offensive teams that take care of the ball can punish that sort of defense; Mike Conley in particular has a bad habit of getting himself out of position, a dangerous thing for a point guard to do.

The good news is that the Grizzlies have just one game left against a top-10 offense (San Antonio), though a few of their other opponents (Boston, Golden State and Portland) can hit that level when they are going right.

Memphis could easily hang on to that eighth seed even with Gay out, and it could still win a postseason game or two if it manages to create chaos and force a ton of turnovers. But the Grizzlies are clearly a less dangerous team without Gay’s scoring in the half-court. Folks mostly laughed at the Grizz for jumping the market and giving him a five-year, $82 million extension last summer, but Gay showed across-the-board progress this season. He shot the ball better, especially from three-point range, and he hiked his (previously embarrassing) assist rate up closer to acceptable levels. He stole the ball more and blocked more shots on defense, and became a much better and smarter worker on that end. He might be overpaid, but most teams would rather have Gay at age 24 for $82 million than Joe Johnson at 29 for $124 million.

I was excited to watch Gay in the postseason. We won’t get that chance now, but don’t count out the Grizz.