Re-evaluating the X-factors as playoffs near

The Thunder had another impressive defensive showing Wednesday in Miami. (Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images)

The rush to anoint the Thunder as a new defensive powerhouse is on after their (very, very impressive) victory in Miami on Wednesday. And that rush is not entirely without merit.

The length and quickness the Thunder can now run out at every position clearly bothered the Heat, who found Oklahoma City’s perimeter players more able than most to keep up with their go-to sets. When Thunder defenders had to switch a screen or fell behind on a quick pick-and-roll play, their interior guys were able to shut off penetration and bother Heat players in the paint. Kendrick Perkins will help more and more as he gets comfortable; Serge Ibaka is evolving into a beast; Nick Collison is a plus as a one-on-one post defender, a pick-and-roll disrupter and all-around helper; and James Harden’s defense has reached the level where coach Scott Brooks can lean on him more when Thabo Sefolosha has the Thunder playing four-on-five on offense.

At the end of January, the Thunder’s defense was one of four units I spotlighted as potential X-factors that could either turn playoff teams into dangerous contenders (or legitimate candidates to spring an upset), or torpedo a team’s chances of being a serious playoff threat in any way.

It’s a good time to re-evaluate those four units now, with a month to go in the regular season and the NBA world showing a new fear of the Thunder today.

OKLAHOMA CITY’S DEFENSE

The Thunder ranked 17th in points allowed per possession six weeks ago; they’re 16th now, and their recent wave of fantastic defensive performances has come against the Wizards, Cavaliers and Heat. Before that, the Thunder had allowed the average number (for them) or more total points per possession in five straight games — four of which came against possible playoff teams.

That said, there are some small signs of improvement here. OKC opponents’ shooting percentage is trending the right way, according to charts that Houston Rockets analyst Ed Kupfer built at Basketball-Reference and other public sites. The Thunder’s other defensive fundamentals have remained stable, and they have improved from 24th to 19th in points allowed per possession on spot-up chances — their biggest weakness all season, according to the stat-tracking service Synergy Sports.

The Thunder do appear more coordinated on the perimeter as we approach the playoffs; I see less over-helping and fewer guys blatantly out of position on pick-and-rolls, which results in fewer open looks on the outside.

But the progress has been small, and the Thunder still allow more attempts at the rim than all but one team (the Raptors) and yield a decent shooting percentage on those close attempts. Let’s see how they do against more quality opponents with Perkins before we label them a new defensive power.
Grade: Incomplete

DALLAS’ OFFENSE

When Dallas ‘ defense started out doing stingier work than most of us expected, the questions shifted — again — to the offense, and whether this team can find enough non-Dirk Nowitzki scoring to hang with the big boys. The Mavericks, to me, have answered that question emphatically, with perhaps the most creative half-court offense in the league and a new dose of Roddy Beaubois over the last two weeks. Beaubois’ minutes have been limited (until Wednesday, when he played 37 minutes in a victory at Golden State), and he has played inconsistently, but Dallas is doing the right thing by tossing him into the starting lineup and right away giving him near-total freedom to create as a combo guard.

The Mavs have jumped all the way to eighth in points per possession, within a measly half-point of a top-four ranking. They’ve tied Boston as the best-shooting team, and they rank in the top 10 in points per possession on nearly every sort of play, according to Synergy — post-ups, isolations, pick-and-rolls and spot-up shooting, which remains their bread and butter. They can be brutally efficient when they do run, and they are one of the rare teams to play a bit faster as the season has gone on, according to Kupfer’s charts on pace.

If there’s a concern, it might be on defense, where the Mavs have slumped toward the league average and have trouble now and then protecting the glass. They also rank last in defending pick-and-roll plays on which the roll man shoots the ball. But this bunch feels like a team that can tighten up when it matters.
Grade: Pass with flying colors

CHICAGO’S OFFENSE

My grade below might seem unfair: The Bulls have climbed from around 20th to league average as their points per possession mark has surged over the last few weeks (per Kupfer’s data). But the improvement started right when their schedule turned soft, and the Bulls’ shooting numbers have remained about the same throughout the full season. (Note: Joakim Noah had thumb surgery when the schedule turned more favorable, so the Bulls probably deserve a bit of extra credit for fattening up on the league’s patsies.)

Chicago has improved mostly on the offensive glass and at limiting turnovers. It will be interesting to see if it can pile up second-chance points once the playoffs start.

But the early indications are good here — just not “They’ve totally answered this question!” good.
Grade: Pass … barely

NEW ORLEANS’ OFFENSE

It just hasn’t happened for the Hornets. Their offense settled in the low 20s in terms of points per possession, and it has stayed there for months amid injuries, returns from injury and one major trade. They’ve turned the ball over less as the season has gone on, but that has been balanced out by a steady (and slow) decline in free throws per shot attempt. Carl Landry can help the bench, but he can’t play together with both David West and Emeka Okafor, and Marcus Thornton (dealt to the Kings for Landry) probably could have helped the offense more.

Two related bits of good news here: 1) The Hornets, for whatever reason, do not suffer nearly as big a drop in scoring against the league’s best teams as most clubs do, per Kupfer’s data. Their offense is average, at best, but it remains that way against the elite. That’s something. As is this: 2) As Henry Abbott pointed out a few weeks ago, this is the rare team that actually scores well in clutch, late-game situations. Most teams see their offensive numbers fall off a cliff in those moments.

Overall, though, this offense remains creaky enough that I can’t quite regard the Hornets as a dangerous first-round opponent for one of the West’s top four.
Grade: Fail