Monday Musings: Are the 76ers true threats?

A healthy Elton Brand has helped Philly clean up the glass. (Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)

After Philadelphia’s 89-86 win over Boston on Friday — the fifth straight game between the two teams decided by four points or fewer — reporters asked Celtics coach Doc Rivers whether the Sixers are the sort of low playoff seed whom elite teams fear playing in the first round. The question made sense because Philadelphia is 31-19 over its last 50 games and looks to be in an entirely different league from whichever team wins the sad “race” for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. But Rivers wouldn’t bite, according to Chris Forsberg of ESPN Boston:

“I hear that all the time. You know, it’s usually the ninth team. Nobody wanted to play us, and I always say, ‘Actually, they really did. They didn’t want to play the eighth team.’ You know what I mean?

“I don’t think anybody cares who they play. We don’t, I can tell you that. At the end of the day, we’ve just got to play.”

Rivers is a candid guy, so I wouldn’t dismiss this as empty bluster. Still: Playing the Pacers (or the Bobcats, or the Bucks) instead of the Sixers would seem to be a key secondary benefit of earning the East’s top seed. The Sixers are playing better than .600 ball after a 3-13 start, and their point differential over their last 50 games is about +3.5 — a mark that would rank them ninth in the league, right above the Thunder and just a tick below the Mavericks and Nuggets. Take out their fluky 28-point loss to the Bucks on Saturday — the Sixers’ fifth game in seven nights — and their scoring margin since the 3-13 start jumps to a little more than +4. Only six teams have a better mark over the full season.

Only an incredible early-season streak of bad luck and weird incompetence in close games has the Sixers sitting at 34 wins instead of a total closer to 40. They found improbable ways to blow last-second leads in two November overtime games to the putrid Wizards; they scored three points in the last eight minutes in an early December choke job against the Hawks; a few days later, the Celtics took them out on a Kevin Garnett buzzer-beater; and in January, they blew games against the Pistons (Lou Williams missed two free throws that would have iced it) and Orlando (yielding a game-tying, four-point play to Jason Richardson) they indisputably should have won. They even lost to the Cavs in November — twice!

The Sixers appear to have shaken their late-game jitters, or at least benefited from some happy regression to the mean in “clutch” situations. They’ve settled on a shortened rotation and managed to thrive as a small-ball team that rebounds at a very good level; lineups including the undersized Elton Brand/Thaddeus Young front line have actually been better at cleaning the defensive glass than the Sixers overall, according to Basketball Value, and Philly has cracked the league’s top 10 in defensive rebounding rate. That’s in part because teams often feel they have to go small against the Sixers  or risk getting run off the court.

But it’s also because coach Doug Collins has turned a team that used to crash the offensive glass into a more disciplined, defense-oriented club with guards who work hard at rebounding. If you consider Evan Turner a guard (a bit questionable, since he plays small forward a lot), he leads all NBA guards in defensive rebounding rate, and Jrue Holiday fares well here, too. And then there’s Brand, whose rebounding levels have jumped back to their career norms after dropping into “disaster” range last season.

Brand told me earlier this year that it has taken this long to recover from the left Achilles tear he suffered in the summer of 2007. His left calf, shrunken down by years of injury-related inactivity, still isn’t as big as his right calf, but it’s getting close, he said. (When Philly played Utah earlier this season, Brand and Mehmet Okur, also recovering from an Achilles tear, joked about how much smaller their injured calves are compared to their healthy ones.) The dislocated shoulder that derailed Brand’s 2008-09 season also hindered his Achilles recovery because he couldn’t work as hard to strengthen his left leg. That turned last season into one long recovery phase, and it took until this season for Brand to finally feel healthy.

“It’s the atrophy,” Brand said. “I couldn’t really jump off of the leg last season or do the things I was accustomed to. But I’m healthy now.”

After some early hiccups, the team’s offense also seems better off with Andre Iguodala splitting point guard duties with Holiday (and, to a lesser extent, Williams). Iguodala and Holiday have figured out how to work with each other, so each is an active part of most offensive sets even though only one can be the primary ball-handler. Jodie Meeks has provided the perimeter threat that Philadelphia sorely lacks otherwise, and Young, shooting 55 percent and passing on three-pointers, has been perhaps the most efficient bench scorer in the league.

And yet, it’s their offense that has me hesitant to push the Sixers as a truly scary first-round opponent. Because here’s the thing: Philadelphia has not been able to score against the league’s best defenses. In 26 games against the league’s top dozen defensive teams, Philly has hit its average in points per possession only six times, and three of those games have come against the Pacers, according to Hoopdata. It’s been held to less than one point per possession — the rough average of the league’s worst offenses — in 15 of those 26 games.

This is the main reason the Sixers are 13-20 against likely playoff teams and 21-12 against everyone else. Everyone loves to say that defense wins championships, and Philadelphia’s ninth-ranked defense has been solid (if inconsistent) against the league’s best offenses. But you have to score, too, and the offense has collapsed against the league’s top defenses — exactly the sort of defense it’ll face in the first round, no matter if it finishes sixth or seventh.

Elite defenses will keep the Sixers out of transition, which in turns makes Philadelphia (relatively) easy to defend. When Meeks is off the court, the team has problems spacing the floor. Spencer Hawes helps when he’s playing well, but he has not done that enough to stay on the court consistently. The Sixers are in the bottom 10 in both offensive rebounds and attempted free throws, so there aren’t many extra chances or free points to be had, either.

There’s a ton of dynamic talent here, so this team can look at times like an offensive beast. But those times have seldom come against the league’s elite, and until that happens, it’s tough to see the Sixers as legit candidates to upset Boston, Chicago or Miami. They’ll be more trouble than the Pacers or Bobcats, for sure, but the smart money would be on four competitive losses in five or six games.

10 THINGS I LIKE AND DON’T LIKE

It may be time for the Sixers to ditch lineups that feature Lou Williams as the primary play-maker. (Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)

1. Philly’s offense when Williams is on the court without Holiday or Iguodala

Of the 10 lineups featuring Williams but not Holiday or Iguodala (minimum of 10 minutes together), six of them, including the three that have played the most minutes together, have put up points per possession marks below Philadelphia’s season average, according to Basketball Value. And only two have positive overall plus/minus scores.

Collins doesn’t use Williams in this role much, and he may have already decided to ditch this strategy when the postseason starts.

2. James Harden emerging

The Thunder’s Harden has scored in double figures in 12 straight games, and he’s topped his season average in 11 of those 12 games. He’s attacking the rim more, and though his drives still veer out of control now and then, he is finishing close shots at a much better rate this season. He’s also developing as a secondary pick-and-roll ball-handler, flashing some nifty pocket-passing ability. I’ve long said that the Thunder will not reach their ceiling this season until Harden supplants Thabo Sefolosha as the team’s fourth-quarter shooting guard. That is happening.

3. The pouting of Dwyane Wade

His declaration during the Heat’s five-game losing streak that “the world is getting what it wants” with Miami’s mini-tailspin was pathetic and showed a remarkable lack of understanding of just how obnoxious Miami’s July celebration really was. But Wade’s whining has reached new levels on the court, too. I know it only seems like he gives officials an angry, entitled glare after every missed jump shot, but, man … it really seems like that, doesn’t it? It’s a trait Wade shares with lots of elite scorers, but only he and Kobe Bryant show officials the same level of cold fury. Go easy, Dwyane. You’re better than this.

4. The movement in Dallas

Casual fans probably think the Mavs are boring, but they’ve become my favorite team to watch, in part because of how creatively coach Rick Carlisle has his guys moving the ball — and moving off the ball — on offense. They’ll break out three-man-weave-style movement on the perimeter, they are experts at simultaneous off-ball movement on both sides of the court and they use the defense’s fear of Dirk Nowitzki’s jump shooting to create looks for others.

Against the Lakers on Saturday, they ran a pick-and-pop set I haven’t seen much from them — or from anyone else in the league. It started with Jason Kidd dribbling along the left sideline while Jason Terry stood in the left corner. Suddenly, Kidd dribbled straight at Terry while Terry cut straight at Kidd. The two basically set screens for each other, and Kidd continued dribbling toward the rim. End of action, right?

Not in Dallas. As Terry curled out to the perimeter, Tyson Chandler popped out to nail Terry’s guy with a surprise screen, freeing Terry for a possible three-pointer. Gorgeous stuff from a team that manages to create offense despite the creative limitations of its personnel.

5. The Tony Allen Show

If there is a single player who should have a camera on him at all times, it’s Tony Allen. On defense, the Memphis guard is such a menace that it makes me uncomfortable just to watch him defend a guy chest-to-chest. He’s creating an insane number of steals that turn into transition buckets, and in the half-court offense, he cuts off the ball well and offers the possibility of an out-of-control drive to the hoop that may result in a half-dozen players falling to the floor.

And on the bench? Let’s put it this way: When Hamed Haddadi scored inside during garbage time a week or so ago, Allen was standing halfway on the court and waving a towel over his head. As the ball went through the hoop, he just tossed the towel straight over his head, not even attempting to catch it. He couldn’t have had any idea whether it would fly on the court, but he ignored its flight path anyway.

6. DeMar DeRozan at small forward

I realize there aren’t any good options in Toronto, but I cringe when the Raptors shift DeRozan to small forward alongside either their two point guards (Jerryd Bayless and Jose Calderon) or one of the two point guards and Leandro Barbosa. And it’s something coach Jay Triano has done more of over the last couple of months. Even without looking at the numbers, it just feels like a lineup that doesn’t work, particularly on defense.

The numbers bear this out, as these kinds of lineups have mostly been disastrous on defense. Then again, almost any kind of Toronto lineup has been disastrous on defense, so I guess it doesn’t matter.

Monty Williams is either coaching the Hornets or teaching a freshman sociology class. (Ron Turenne/NBAE via Getty Images)

7. Monty Williams’ suit jackets

Williams might not be the best-dressed coach in the league (I’m no fashion expert, obviously), but he’s probably the most entertaining dresser, unless you have a passion for what Stan Van Gundy does in Orlando. A couple of weeks ago, Williams broke out a thick tan jacket featuring intersecting brown stripes that looked like a fancy version of something a young college professor would wear on his first day of class. When you watch the Hornets, take a second to monitor Monty’s fashion choice for the night.

8. Andrei Kirilenko shooting jumpers

The Jazz are just about out of the playoff race after weekend losses to the Wolves (an embarrassing blowout) and the Bulls, but that doesn’t make me any less annoyed when I see Kirilenko brick another 20-footer. Kirilenko is shooting just 33 percent on long two-pointers, a huge drop-off from his last three seasons, and a Kirilenko jumper just seems like a wasted possession given the talent elsewhere on the floor and his own skill at cutting off the ball to get better shots.

9. Lamar Odom’s bank shots

Tim Duncan gets all the love as the league’s preeminent bank-shot artist. But that may be a disservice to Odom, whose bankers come less predictably and from closer range — and thus might not draw the attention of Duncan’s patented angled jumper. Odom’s one-handed bankers have a craftiness and level of difficulty that Duncan can’t touch. There are so many times when Odom will appear trapped under the rim or blanketed by a long-armed defender at the end of one of his drives to the hoop. And then his left arm will rise into the picture, from under the backboard, beneath his defender’s armpit or between his defender’s arms, and Odom will flick up a banker from a weird angle and with a funky trajectory. And it will go in. He’s an underrated shot-maker.

10. Kyle Lowry from deep

Before this season, Houston’s Lowry had never attempted more than 136 threes in a season or hit better than 28 percent from deep. (Note: That last bit excludes his rookie year, when he went 3-of-8 in 10 games.)

This season? He’s jacking four per game (double his previous career high) and hitting 38 percent  — an above-average mark. We’ve seen lots of guys have fluky three-point seasons before, so let’s hold out on declaring Lowry a permanently dangerous deep threat. But Lowry hasn’t gotten the same sort of attention as Derrick Rose for developing a legit three-point shot, and he’s out-shooting Rose from distance by a significant margin. Did you see those seven threes Lowry rained on Phoenix last Tuesday? Yikes.

It wasn’t a huge fluke, either; Lowry’s two threes against the Spurs on Saturday ended a six-game streak in which he had hit at least three triples.