Top five teams of the future

By Mark Haubner

While Zach Lowe hobnobs with NBA royalty and stats geeks at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference this weekend, Mark Hauber was kind enough to lend his basketball expertise to The Point Forward. Haubner is the co-founder of The Painted Area, a blog in the TrueHoop network, where he writes under the nom de blog of M. Haubs. Be nice to him. And check out his blog.

After so many changes to so many teams recently, this past week of game action has had the feel of an entirely new season. So far, the focus of the deadline deals has been their immediate impact — how the arrival of Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups revitalizes New York, how the Nets’ finally landed a star in Deron Williams, how the Celtics’ shocking traded away top defensive big man Kendrick Perkins — but all will leave a mark on the future.

In examining how the trade deadline altered the power structure of elite teams going forward, here’s a stab at the five (well, sort of) teams that are best positioned over the next five seasons.

(All salary figures are according to ShamSports.com)

The Heat may be the most anti-clutch group in the league right now, but they're also one of the best-positioned teams over the next five years. (Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

MIAMI HEAT

The Heat became the NBA’s Evil Empire immediately after “The Decision,” and it’s certainly not news that Miami is well-positioned for the future. LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh are still in their 20s and all are signed through 2016 (they have early termination options in 2014).

But if you’ll recall, Mike Miller’s name was floated around at the deadline, indicating a potential ticking bomb that threatens to undermine any kind of sustained glory in South Florida: the Heat are carrying an enormous amount of committed money. In 2012-13, only the Lakers ($92 million) and the Magic ($77 million — and that’s only if Dwight Howard’s still around) have more on their books than the Heat ($68 million), and no one is carrying more than Miami’s $71 million in 2013-14 and $76 million in 2014-15 (assuming all six signed players’ pick-up options).

To a certain extent, it’s all fine and dandy, given that Miami’s Big Three accounts for about $57 million of that money per year — bargain deals, really. The problem is this is what Miami gets to look forward to in two years:

Mike Miller (age 33 in 2013-14): $6.2 million

Udonis Haslem (age 33 in 2013-14): $4.3 million

Joel Anthony (age 31 in 2013-14): $3.8 million

Miller’s deal is the most onerous — five years, $29 million — especially considering he has not played well after missing the first two months with a thumb injury. James Jones has usurped Miller’s role as designated shooter (though it should be noted that Miller, at his best, contributes in many more areas than Jones).

While the Heat are certainly still in this year’s championship mix, the weaknesses of their roster outside the Big Three have been exposed, especially in games against other elite teams. If the new collective bargaining agreement cracks down on salary-cap exceptions, Miami might get stuck with a declining supporting cast. Given the terms of Miller’s contract, it’s critical that Miami either receives better production from Miller or a good deal for him.

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

The Thunder were widely acknowledged as big winners for turning Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic into Kendrick Perkins and Nazr Mohammed at the trade deadline. The deals undoubtedly made Oklahoma City a more formidable foe for this year’s playoffs, but it’s surprising that the Thunder locked up Perkins to an extension right away, even with the creative cap work that allowed general manager Sam Presti to sign Perkins to a reasonable deal.

The Thunder now look to be set with an outstanding young core highlighted by the Durant-Russell Westbrook-Serge Ibaka trio of limitless potential and complemented by role players James Harden, Perkins, Thabo Sefolosha, Nick Collison and Eric Maynor. Still, it’s logical to question the Thunder’s thinking in not waiting until the summer with Perkins (who would have been a free agent by then) given that Nene may also be on the market. As much as Perkins shores up a defense that has been average this season, Oklahoma City could use a better post presence offensively, an area in which Nene is vastly superior. He may not be Perkins on the defensive end, but Nene isn’t a huge downgrade on that end of the floor.

In the short-term, Mohammed can provide a scoring punch, and Perkins may be more well-known from being on a high-profile team, but Nene is a stud, one of the more underrated players in the league. There’s talk that the Nuggets may get him to sign an extension, but don’t be surprised if Oklahoma City tries to make a play for him. Make no mistake, the Thunder are poised to be an elite team for the foreseeable future, but it remains to be seen if Perkins is the right player for their needs.

CHICAGO BULLS

Despite the relative disappointment of missing out on the biggest free agents last summer, the Bulls are increasingly looking like one of the intimidating teams of this decade, thanks to a well-constructed and youthful core of Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Carlos Boozer, Joakim Noah; the addition of solid role players, like sharpshooter Kyle Korver; the defensive help of bigs Omer Asik and Taj Gibson; and, above all, the guidance of first-year coach Tom Thibodeau, who is proving to be every bit as sharp of a head coach as he was an assistant in Boston.

The one glaring hole is at shooting guard, but the Bulls resisted the urge to make an immediate trade at the deadline, wisely refusing to give up valuable reserve Asik for dime-a-dozen guard Courtney Lee. Reports suggested that Memphis rebuffed Chicago’s attempts to acquire O.J. Mayo despite a reported offer that seemed at least as good as the one the Grizzlies came within a whisker of accepting from Indiana. In past years, the Bulls have seemed to operate with an overabundance of patience and caution, but now it seems like the right path. The pieces they’ve put together fit. They need just one more piece, and should be careful about breaking up what they’ve compiled to date.

The one lingering question lies with owner Jerry Reinsdorf: Is he willing to pay the luxury tax? Despite the fact that the Bulls are rolling in money — Forbes ranks Chicago second in the NBA in profits — they have a rather modest payroll this season, and they are one of the few NBA teams that have never paid the luxury tax. Reinsdorf has said he will pay the tax for a contender, and who knows if there will even be a luxury-tax structure in the new CBA. But know this: When Derrick Rose becomes due for an extension, Reinsdorf will need to pay a premium to keep this promising team together.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

I know, right? It sounds crazy, and yes, this is probably a view closer to 2015-16 than 2011-12, but after dumping Baron Davis’ monstrous contract (he signed a five-year deal worth $65 million in 2008), the Clippers are in prime position to become a leading contender in the West. It all starts with one of the best young duos in basketball: Blake Griffin, 21, and Eric Gordon, 22. The Davis-for-Mo Williams deal allowed the Clips to save more than $6 million in the summer of 2012. It cost L.A. a 2011 lottery pick, but it was well worth it. The 2011 draft is a weak one, and the Clippers have enough promising youngsters — including DeAndre Jordan (22), Eric Bledsoe (21) and Al-Farouq Aminu (20) — and don’t forget they own Minnesota’s unprotected first-round pick in 2012.

In the summer of 2012, the Clippers could be looking at the opportunity to add a max free agent (Dwight Howard, Deron Williams and Chris Paul are the potential top prizes) and a high lottery pick to the core they’ve assembled. The Clips have excellent young talent, they have cap space and they are in the most desirable destination for NBA players. Now, can the L.A. Clippers close the deal, with a guy like, say, Deron Williams, who lives in San Diego in the offseason? It is the ultimate test for Donald Sterling, long the symbol for incompetent NBA ownership, who has a juggernaut at his fingertips.

DWIGHT HOWARD’S TEAM

Yeah, Chris Paul and Deron Williams are still in play long-term, but Howard’s the only potentially available player who can single-handedly turn a team into a contender for the next several years. Whatever team he signs with (Howard has an early termination option in 2012) will immediately vault into contention.

The early leading players in the Howard Sweepstakes appear to be the Nets, Knicks, Lakers and the incumbent Magic. The surprising move by Nets owner Mikhail Prokhorov to acquire Deron Williams was a big step for his franchise. With a glamorous new arena opening in 2012, a rich owner, a big market and now the lure of a superstar in Williams, Brooklyn has the strong potential to become a hot NBA destination. The only question is whether change can happen — i.e. wins — soon enough to keep Williams in town and also entice another star like Howard.

While the Carmelo trade has opened up new possibilities for the Knicks, adding a third superstar could be problematic given how much money is tied up in Anthony and Stoudemire as the new CBA looms. Donnie Walsh claims the Knicks will have room for a max free agent in 2012, but what if Knicks owner Jim Dolan lets Walsh go at the end of this season when the GM’s contract expires? And worse, what if Isiah Thomas returns? (If the latter happens, please scrub the words “New York Knicks” from any story having to do with hope and promise for the future.)

Looking ahead, the Lakers may be a surprisingly desperate situation to land Howard. L.A. has an aging roster with more than $90 million committed in 2012-13, including $20 million to the over-30 crew of Ron Artest, Derek Fisher, Steve Blake and Luke Walton. Andrew Bynum is the only significant player the Lakers have who is still improving, though he could be a big trade chip in a deal for Howard.

Orlando made its big splash in December, opting to gamble more on older players than younger guys. The jury is still out on whether the Magic will still look like enough of a championship contender in 2012 to entice their big center to stay.

As mentioned above, the Clippers should also have room to acquire Howard, should he opt for Hollywood rather than following in the Lakers’ long line of franchise centers. It’s also worth noting that Danny Ainge has set up the Celtics’ books to be pretty clear in 2012, and also that Howard’s hometown is Atlanta, though it’s doubtful the Hawks could work him into the fold after handing Joe Johnson a max contract last summer.

KEEP IN MIND …

• Since the Mavericks have won an average of 56 games during Mark Cuban’s tenure and they appear to be legitimate contenders this season, they can’t be dismissed, especially given the continually creative work Donnie Nelson has done to keep them relevant despite cap challenges. Certainly, Cuban has made Dallas an enticing free-agent destination, so Deron Williams (a Dallas-area native) and Howard have to be considered legitimate targets. Plus, Mavs have an aging roster that may need significant replenishment by then.

• Catastrophic injuries could derail any plans of the above-mentioned teams. Just ask the Trail Blazers.