Monday Musings: Are the Magic done?

Hedo Turkoglu and the Magic are struggling against good teams like Boston. (NBAE via Getty Images)

There is no easy answer for what’s going on in Orlando. Since a win over Dallas on Jan. 8, the Magic have lost to every winning team they’ve played. They have two decent wins in that span — an overtime win against the Sixers at home, and a pretty convincing road win against Houston. Other than that, they’ve beaten the dregs of the league and dropped games to Boston, Miami, Memphis, New Orleans, Oklahoma City, Chicago and some lesser lights.

They’ve lost eight of their last 15 games, and though that alone is not reason to panic, it means the Magic have to recalculate their path to the title. A team that started as part of the Eastern Conference Holy Trinity now sits in fifth place, two games behind the Hawks (the Hawks!) in the loss column and five behind Chicago, which is about to get Joakim Noah back as its schedule gets tough again. Barring a major push — and they’ve made major pushes in each of the last two seasons — the Magic are going to be part of the 4-5 series in the first round. That’s a big change for a team that had home-court advantage in every playoff round last season and didn’t play a meaningful quarter of postseason hoops until Boston stormed Orlando in Game 1 of the conference finals.

It means they may have to go through both Boston and Miami (or perhaps Chicago) instead of getting a pseudo-bye into the final four.

The most disturbing thing with the Magic is there’s no easy solution. No one, quick fix. Decent offenses had been torching them until Sunday, when it was Orlando’s offense — improved since the two big trades in mid-December — that faltered against Boston. That offense also deserted the Magic in recent losses to Chicago and New Orleans and that win against Philly, but their defense carried them to varying degrees in those games.

The Magic cannot seem to put together a complete game against a decent team. They’re an inconsistent team, and inconsistent teams tend to be confusing and consistently mediocre.

There are issues you can point toward, but nothing certain. Gilbert Arenas cannot guard anyone, though opposing point guards are putting up middling numbers overall against Arenas and the Magic’s defense plays just about as well with Arenas on the floor versus with him on the bench, according to Basketball Value. Overall, though, the Magic’s defense has given up about three more points per 100 possessions since the trades — a big number. And those point guard stats hide the fact that Arenas’ inability to stop dribble drives creates holes elsewhere. Things get worse when you add in Arenas’ 37 percent shooting and the fact that when he found himself isolated against Paul Pierce on Sunday, he could only muster a fading and well-defended baseline jumper that missed badly.

It’s also tempting to point the finger at the Arenas-Jameer Nelson combination, but the numbers don’t prove the duo isn’t working — yet. The two lean toward the bad side, but some lineups featuring both point guards have done fine.

After Sunday’s loss in Boston, I was tempted to conclude that the Ryan Anderson-Hedo Turkoglu combination might be a problem. Turkoglu in 2011 isn’t the same as Turkoglu in 2009. This version doesn’t shoot as well and has trouble guarding elite small forwards, who are killing Orlando when Turkoglu is in the game, according to 82games.com. Coach Stan Van Gundy is starting to lose patience with Turkoglu. After Hedo lost Paul Pierce on a back-screen late in the third quarter, allowing an easy backdoor layup, Van Gundy snapped at Turkoglu and lifted him immediately for Quentin Richardson. After the game, Van Gundy said he often has this reaction to Hedo’s play these days: “What the hell is he doing?” Not good.

It was clear Sunday that the Celtics do not offer Anderson the same respect they did Rashard Lewis. When Turkoglu and Lewis ran pick-and-rolls, the Boston defenders — Pierce and Kevin Garnett — often switched, leaving Pierce checking the bigger Anderson and Garnett on Turkoglu. This was clearly planned, and it was not something Boston would have risked so much against a speedier Turkoglu or Lewis, a capable post-up threat against smaller guys. The Magic made Boston pay for this a couple of times, but not enough to worry the Celtics into dropping the strategy.

Boston also made a point of going at Anderson on defense, involving him in pick-and-rolls and having Garnett post him often.

And yet, the numbers (again) show that lineups with Anderson and Turkoglu together have had mixed results — some great, some so-so.

It’s hard to appreciate how much experimentation there is to do here, particularly with Brandon Bass out now. Can the Magic realistically shift Turkoglu to power forward against elite teams that refuse to go small along with Orlando? Why does Jason Richardson seem lost here? Van Gundy has given a lot of minutes to a smallish wing combination of Richardson and J.J. Redick (along with a point guard and two big men) to wildly varying results. Are Richardson and Redick redundant in that group? Overmatched on defense? Well, the most common lineup involving those two at the wing has yielded about 118 points per 100 possessions — a terrible number. The second-most common lineup featuring these two has yielded just 99 points per 100 possessions — an elite number.

What’s going on here? Does Arenas even belong in this rotation?

There are so many questions, and Van Gundy is still trying to answer them to find the right mix and the right sets on offense. The Magic will have only 25 games or so to work this out before Bass’ return. That’s not an ideal situation; the Cavaliers last season lamented how little time they had to prepare for the playoffs with their core lineup, and though Shaquille O’Neal’s late-season injury made that situation more troubling that Orlando’s current state, the fact remains that more preparation time is better.

There is talent here to at least do damage in the playoffs, but finding the right combination of talent will be a challenge. And even then, it might be enough.

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10 THINGS I LIKE AND DON’T LIKE

Stephen Jackson and the Bobcats donned dark jerseys at home against Miami. That is not OK. (Brian A. Westerholt/Getty Images)

1. Home teams wearing dark jerseys

We see this more and more now, and it’s a transparent attempt at selling jerseys. Orlando has done this a couple of times with its black jerseys. The Bobcats have done this at most of their home games over the last three weeks or so. On Friday against Miami, the Charlotte sideline reporter mentioned that the team has noticed jersey sales increase on nights when the team wears the away blues at home.

I find this annoying and disorienting, as when the Rockets played host to the Raptors on New Year’s Eve and wore their away reds. Houston and Toronto have very similar court designs, and I had to remind myself several times that the game was actually in Houston.

Stop it. Home teams wear white, away teams wear dark.

2. Shane Battier, in the post

Battier is not someone you’d think of as a back-to-the-basket guy, but when teams go small against Houston — or when Battier finds himself matched with a shooting guard — he’ll often rush to the block and demand the ball. And it turns out Battier is a serviceable post player when he can back down a smaller guy and toss up a simple jump hook. Battier sometimes even draws double teams, freeing up Houston’s outside shooters.

The Rockets are such a good offensive team partly because they are smart, and that includes feeding Battier in the post when teams try to hide weak defenders on him.

3. The Miami announcers and their irrelevant stats

There’s a lot not to like with play-by-play man Eric Reid and analyst Tony Fiorentino, but the endless stream of meaningless statistics is near the top of the list. In a game a couple of weeks ago, Joel Anthony blocked a shot, and viewers learned that it was the 19th game in a row (I may be off on the number) in which Anthony had blocked a shot, and that the streak tied the longest of his career.

Really? Reading statistical minutia (likely) prepared by the Heat is not the same as educating your viewers about basketball.

4. The glorious Russell Westbrook Misdirection in OKC

I first noticed this about 10 days ago, and the Thunder ran this delicious little play again in their win against Phoenix on Friday — and they did so out of a timeout, so you know coach Scott Brooks likes the play.

Here’s how it works: Westbrook will be dribbling the ball at the top of the arc, and two Thunder big men will suddenly veer up from the baseline, take a wide turn around the left elbow and get in position to set a screen to Westbrook’s left.

But this is all a diversion designed, it appears, to confuse Westbrook’s defender and make him think a monster screen is coming from his left. When Westbrook senses his guy has turned his attention to that screen, he suddenly drives down right side of the line. No defenders are there, because the two opposing big men have followed the fake screeners and the last remaining defender is guarding Kevin Durant in the right corner. And you don’t leave Kevin Durant in the right corner.

5. How Phoenix discusses a possible Steve Nash trade

It’s fine if the Suns don’t want to trade Nash. He’s a legend in Phoenix, and who knows how empty their arena would be if Nash weren’t around.

But for Alvin Gentry and Lon Babby to dismiss the possibility of a deal as if it had sprung from the ravings of a loon is ridiculous. Here’s Gentry, talking to ESPN.com’s Marc Stein:

“How you gonna get value for him? Unless you’re gonna go get Deron Williams or Chris Paul or somebody like that, tell me how.”

And here’s Babby:

“I don’t see how it makes any sense for us to move him,” Babby said. “I know that people think we ought to look to the future. And we’re doing that. But if you look at the history of the teams that have sort of blown it up, as the expression goes, how successful have they been in recapturing [elite status] and how long does it take?”

You can’t see any scenario in which it makes sense to move Nash? Not unless it includes Deron Williams or Chris Paul?

Come on. I get that the new collective bargaining agreement could change the Suns’ outlook a bit, and that the Thunder are really the only Western Conference team set to contend in, say, three seasons. A decent Phoenix team with Nash could theoretically do something in two years. Maybe even next season, with huge luck.

But chances are just as good that Phoenix remains a non-factor, and a non-factor that refuses to even explore the possibility of acquiring an extra first-round pick or young asset is acting irresponsibly.

6. Gerald Wallace looking fearless

This guy, when he’s healthy and motivated, can do so much for you. On Friday against Miami, he posted up LeBron James and went at him, backing him down and scoring at the rim. He hit jumpers. He slid to power forward and defended Chris Bosh credibly despite a huge height disadvantage.

And he’s doing this stuff almost every night for the Bobcats. It would be so fun to see Wallace on a contender after Feb. 24.

7. Andray Blatche, on the baseline

I’m one of about 250 NBA writers who has taken time this season to point out Blatche’s lazy defense, poor shot selection and all-around dispiriting play.

But, man, does this guy have a fun array of shots along the baseline. He’ll appear to be caught behind the rim, and he’s not exactly the best jumper, but then Blatche will flip some soft righty layup from behind the backboard and coax it in. He’s got touch. I’ll give him that.

8. Carlos Boozer, sagging down

You know it, and so does Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau and his otherwise near-perfect defense: Teams are going to attack Boozer on pick-and-rolls, and if they’re good, they’ll find some opening. Boozer tries hard and communicates (very) loudly, but he’s not one of those Kevin Garnett types who can cover everything.

And to his credit, he doesn’t try to cover everything. If he jumps out on a pick-and-roll to cut off a ball-handler, another Chicago big guy will have to take his man while Boozer recovers to someone else. Other times, Boozer will see the pick coming and sag back, conceding the mid-range jumper (Stephen Curry killed Chicago like this on Saturday) and opening the door for a pick-and-pop.

Rajon Rondo, Jameer Nelson, Kevin Garnett, Glen Davis, LeBron James, Chris Bosh — they’re all licking their chops.

9. Eddie House has returned

House can be an irritant — ask Rafer Alston — and this run of big shots doesn’t guarantee him meaningful playoff minutes. But the NBA is more fun with House playing his part.

10. The stretching of DeMar DeRozan

It’s coming slowly and in fits, but the Raptors are working DeRozan in as a pick-and-roll ball-handler — and the second-year guard is growing as a passer. He’s averaging 1.9 assists per 36 minutes, up from 1.1 last season, and though that’s not much, DeRozan will give the Raptors three or four assists twice a week now.

DeRozan as a multi-faceted wing represents hope in Toronto. And these fans need hope.