Monday Musings: Some units key to playoffs

For Kevin Durant and the Thunder to join the list of true title contenders, they need to improve their D, which has sunk to 17th in points allowed per possession. (Garrett W. Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images)

As we blow past the midpoint of the season, five teams rank in the top 10 in both offensive efficiency (points per possession) and defensive efficiency (points allowed per possession). People like to say that “defense wins championships,” but what really wins championships is being very good at as many aspects of the game as possible. It will surprise no one to hear that the five teams that crack the top 10 in both categories are San Antonio, Miami, the Lakers, Boston* and Orlando.

* I’m cheating just a bit here, as Boston and the Magic are essentially tied for 10th in offensive efficiency.

The latter four teams were just about everyone’s four preseason title favorites, and if you had asked folks before the season to name a fifth contender, many would have pegged the Spurs. And with apologies to a few teams with better records than Orlando, these five clubs are still the first five I’d name (in some order) if you asked me today to list the teams most likely to win the championship.

There’s plenty of time between now and the playoffs for teams outside this group to budge their way in this picture — if they haven’t already — or at least position themselves to be more than playoff roadkill for the league’s best. Doing so will require maintaining their level of play on one end and improving their play to some degree on the other. Here are the units I’ll be playing closest attention to as we slog through the dog days:

• Oklahoma City Thunder’s defense

If there has been a single dimension of one team that has been most disappointing, it might be the Thunder’s defense, which finished last season in the top 10 but has sunk to 17th in points allowed per possession this season. In retrospect, perhaps we should have expected some regression despite the general trend of young teams getting better. The Thunder last season were a mediocre defensive rebounding team that fouled at about an average rate. In other words, their defensive success was based heavily on forcing turnovers (only six clubs forced them more often) and, more than anything else, opponents missing shots.

Guess what? The Thunder are still a mediocre defensive rebounding team that fouls at an average rate. They’re forcing a smidgen fewer turnovers, and opponents aren’t missing as much anymore.

A deeper look at the numbers and the game tape shows opponents are killing the Thunder at the rim and on spot-up attempts. The at-the-rim stuff isn’t shocking: The Thunder are permanently undersized when Nenad Krstic is on the bench, and their tendency to switch all over the place leaves them dealing with mismatches late in the shot clock. (Did you see James Harden trying to guard Chris Bosh in the post on Sunday?) No team has allowed more shot attempts at the rim, and opponents are hitting those shots at an above-average rate.

The spot-up stuff is more damaging. The Thunder rank 24th in points allowed per possession on spot-up looks; they ranked fourth last season, according to the stat-tracking service Synergy Sports. You can often spot the Thunder over-helping from the perimeter, in part because of some bad habits and in part because the help is necessary due to mismatches inside (those maddening switches) and shaky pick-and-roll defense.

The Thunder a nice story and a dangerous team on the right night. But they are not beating the elite four times in seven games unless they get this stuff in order.

• New Orleans Hornets’ offense

It would seem to be against the laws of nature that an offense led by the NBA’s best point guard would rank 23rd (!) in points per possession, but such is the case with New Orleans. Chris Paul’s work and the David West pick-and-pop game are really the only things keeping this offense afloat, and there are no signs of that changing, barring some unexpected trade-deadline heist or a radical shift in philosophy. The surrounding talent just can’t score consistently, the bench too often provides nothing and the two guys most capable of helping — Marcus Thornton and Jarrett Jack — are unreliable night-to-night.

The defense is fantastic. The offense isn’t good enough.

• Chicago Bulls’ offense

This may be the best chance for progress. We haven’t really seen what a fully healthy Bulls team can do on this end. The league’s top defensive club ranks just 19th on offense, but that’s still loads better than where the Bulls were last season under Vinny Del Negro. Derrick Rose is a more efficient scorer, Carlos Boozer is the pick-and-roll beast Rose has never had and Luol Deng is working hard — with mixed results — to become another pick-and-roll option. Tom Thibodeau and his staff have introduced a nicely varied playbook, and they have (in spurts) worked Ronnie Brewer and Kyle Korver into things effectively.

And yet, they’re 19th. The team still needs more perimeter shooting, more trips to the line and a higher finishing rate on close shots. The raw material might be here, though.

• Dallas Mavericks’ offense

Kudos to these guys for maintaining a top-10 defense, but the offense needs to be better if Dallas is going to compete against the Lakers and Spurs in the West. The Mavs rank 13th in points per possession, and Sasha Pavlovic and Peja Stojakovic are not going to solve things. The Mavs already possess a pretty potent three-point attack, but they need help generating looks in the paint and getting to the line. None of this is news, I realize, since the Mavs have long been a jump-shooting bunch. But it’s hard to score reliably when you’re last in shot attempts at the rim and a tick below league average in drawing fouls. This isn’t an Orlando situation, where a pile of hacks on Dallas big men is artificially reducing the team’s official number of close shot attempts.

The Mavs lack a pick-and-roll creator who can reliably finish in the lane (some Jason Terry outbursts notwithstanding), and that won’t change unless Mark Cuban strikes a big trade or Roddy Beaubois (approaching Big Foot status) fills the void.

_______________________________________________________________________________

10 THINGS I LIKE AND DON’T LIKE

Kevin Garnett, a notorious hothead in the league, tossed some words (and a low blow) at Channing Frye on Friday. (Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

1. Kevin Garnett, the villain

This leans more toward a dislike, with some caveats. The shot to Channing Frye’s nether-regions? It looked intentional, and if it was, it’s just the latest in a long, long, long line of incidents suggesting that the amped-up version of KG will cross some uncomfortable lines. It is almost becoming a tired discussion, to be honest. He is one of the greatest players in league history, but this sort of stuff will taint his legacy. He probably doesn’t care.

And even so, I tried not to think too much into Garnett’s response to a request for an autograph from a Lakers ball boy:

“You got a better chance of catching Bin Laden.”

Somehow, in the context of Lakers-Celtics, this bit of rudeness seems OK. I realize the hypocrisy here, people.

2. San Antonio, moving that ball

No team is more fun to watch in the halfcourt, with all the side-to-side movement, backdoor cuts and swinging of the ball. Watch for this one, a personal favorite: Tony Parker and DeJuan Blair will run a pick-and-roll at the top of the three-point arc while Richard Jefferson relaxes on the left wing above the three-point line and Manu Ginobili sprints his way to the left corner, near Jefferson. If Parker penetrates, Jefferson’s guy may sag down toward the foul line to help.

As that happens, Jefferson will drift slightly to the left. Even worse for that poor defender: Tim Duncan will creep up toward the foul line area, position himself between Jefferson and Jefferson’s defender and set a back-screen. When RJ’s defender turns to scurry back out to Jefferson, he’ll run right into Duncan’s chest.

Parker will then kick the ball out to Jefferson, who can either shoot an open triple or — if Ginobili’s man rotates out to him — shoot a pass to Ginobili in the left corner. Gorgeous hoops.

3. TNT, getting us closer

Over the last couple of weeks, TNT has gone through some stretches of Thursday games using a closer-than-usual camera view of the action. I first thought it was some technical snafu, but it keeps popping up, if only for limited stretches.

And I hate it. Maybe I’m a hoops geek, but I don’t like when I can’t see what all 10 players are doing at the same time. And let me add this for all TV networks: Please stop shrinking the game action to give us a split screen of the coaches doing their between-quarters interview or some celebrity hawking his latest awful romantic comedy timed for Valentine’s Day (hi, Adam Sandler). I’m here to watch basketball. If you’re determined to do these things, give us the audio only and give the game 100 percent of the screen.

4. J.J. Redick, moving off the ball — and to the ball

As Redick gets better, the Magic are handing him more responsibility. Example: The Magic (and lots of teams) will often set up with a big man at each elbow, a wing player in each corner and the point guard (usually Jameer Nelson) dribbling up top. The point guard will then enter the ball to one of the big men at the elbow and cut someplace, initiating a series of screens and cuts.

The Magic are now calling plays for Redick to cut from his corner spot, take a handoff from the big guy with the ball and then dribble around two screens — one from each big man stationed at the elbow. After all that, he ends up on the opposite wing from where he started with the option to shoot, pass, or continue to the rim. Good stuff for a deadly shooter.

5. Rajon Rondo’s foul shooting

I know the timing is off, since Rondo beautifully orchestrated Boston’s second-half surge in Los Angeles on Sunday — a surge that took place, it should be noted, after the Lakers had to shift Kobe Bryant off Rondo. But at what point should we start discussing Rondo’s foul shooting as a mini-crisis? The Boston point guard has hit just 49 percent of his free throws, and, just as bad, his attempts per game are down from 3.5 last season to 1.7 this season. There will be a big spot in May or June when Boston will need Rondo to attack the rim with confidence and drain his foul shots.

6. Stephen Curry, shot-maker

Curry may have passed Tony Parker and Steve Nash as the little guy with the most diverse set of one-handed floaters, over-the-head layups (with either hand), layups heavy on the English and all sorts of tricky stuff. This is a guy who clearly works on finding innovative ways to score despite his lack of size.

7. The Pistons, going wacky

On Friday night against Miami, the Pistons trotted out the following lineup: Chris Wilcox/Tracy McGrady/Charlie Villanueva/Tayshaun Prince/Austin Daye. They then substituted Greg Monroe for Wilcox, but the effect was the same — a lineup both huge and small, with the 6-foot-8 T-Mac the shortest guy on the floor.

The Heat outscored this group pretty easily, but doing so involved a couple of LeBron James bailout jumpers and some decent missed looks for Detroit. Here’s hoping Detroit tries this again so we can see which side benefits most from all the mismatches.

8. Trevor Booker’s surprising athleticism

At 6-foot-7 and 240 pounds, the Wizards’ Booker may end up being tossed into the dreaded “tweener” barrel. I hope not, because Booker is surprisingly fun to watch. He looks stocky, but he glides to the rim in a flash and dunks with power. He’s shooting 54 percent, and he deserves more of a look as Washington limps to the finish.

9. Amar’e Stoudemire, the pick-and-roll mooch

As Wilson Chandler has emerged as screener on pick-and-roll plays, the Knicks have been able to use Stoudemire in a new way. Chandler prefers slipping the screen — darting down the lane before he really sets a pick for Raymond Felton. When the Knicks call for this, Stoudemire will often start the play in the corner on the same side of the floor Chandler cuts down. Chandler naturally draws attention from Stoudemire’s man, and Amar’e will take that opening and sort of loop around behind Chandler and out near the elbow.

If Felton can get him the ball quickly, Stoudemire has lots of space to either shoot or drive. You’ll also see the Magic use Hedo Turkoglu this way.

10. The Sixers, late in games

Did you see what happened on Friday when Philadelphia played host to the Grizzlies? The Sixers are 21-26 and could very well be 26-21 had they been able to avoid a series of late-game catastrophes. I don’t even know who to blame at this point.