Lack of backup big men limit East teams

The Magic may not be as desperate for a backup to Dwight Howard as some think. (NBAE via Getty Images)

Over at CelticsHub, they’re poking fun at Orlando general manager Otis Smith, who politely dismissed the notion that the Magic badly need a backup center in the event they face Boston in the playoffs. Here’s Smith explaining himself recently to the Orlando Sentinel:

“Why do I need one?” Smith asked.”See, I look at it the other way. Why do they have all of those bigs? To match up with us, to match up with Dwight,” he said.

The Magic’s backup center is Malik Allen, and he’s hurt. As a result, Dwight Howard has logged at least 39 minutes in six of the last seven games and topped the 42-minute mark in four of those games. When Howard’s on the bench, the Magic have typically gone with a front-line combination of Brandon Bass, a 6-8 power forward who likes the mid-range game, and Ryan Anderson, a 6-10 guy who has been typecast as a perimeter gunner but also provides offensive rebounding. This is a decent group of big men, but not an especially imposing one — particularly if they come across a Celtics team designed in part to bully Howard.

But what if that Celtics team doesn’t actually exist?

The Celtics’ current center rotation consists of the following:

• Shaquille O’Neal: The starter who wasn’t supposed to be the starter. O’Neal has come back to earth after a first month or so that had some lobbying for him to be included in the All-Star Game. His Player Efficiency Rating was better than 20 a month ago; now it’s down to 16.9 — a tick or two above league average — and he’s logged 21 or fewer minutes in nine of Boston’s last 11 games. Shaq is old and prone to foul trouble, and he can’t realistically give you heavy minutes.

• Jermaine O’Neal: The guy who was supposed to start has played just 307 minutes. He’s shooting 44.7 percent and putting up the worst rebounding numbers of his career. Even worse: His left knee keeps swelling up, and both he and Celtics coach Doc Rivers conceded Thursday that O’Neal will need in-season surgery to clean up the knee. The Celtics and O’Neal said they considered having the surgery earlier but hoped rest would fix things. If he does have surgery and isn’t in top condition by the playoffs, the team will face questions — fair or not — about how they handled things.

• Semih Erden: A Turkish rookie meant to be a regular-season minutes-sopper, not a part of the playoff rotation.

• Kendrick Perkins: The incumbent starter, Perkins has missed the entire season recovering from reconstructive surgery on his right knee. Perkins has been optimistic throughout his rehab, and he is set to return late this month or sometime in February. Perkins defends Howard perhaps better than any big man in the league, and Boston fans are already imagining Perkins in peak form by the playoffs.

But it often isn’t until a player’s second season back from serious injury that he begins playing up to previous form — especially when the player doesn’t return until late in that first season of recovery. At this point, Perkins is more of an unknown than most Celtics fans would like admit.

The rest of Boston’s big-man rotation consists of Kevin Garnett, Glen Davis and another guy the team does not envision playing important postseason minutes (Luke Harangody).

All of this raises an interesting question: Which of these teams might blink first and deal for a backup big man? The need might be there, in both places, by the time the trade deadline comes in late February.

And there figures to be big men available. The Nuggets will probably be willing to rid themselves of Chris Andersen’s long-term deal if they go through a complete rebuild. Memphis’ Hasheem Thabeet is on the block (not a chance, I know). Chris Kaman’s name has been floated, though both Boston and Orlando would have trouble sending out the salary to match a big contract like Kaman’s or a few of those mentioned below.

The following big men are on expiring contracts:

Samuel Dalembert and Carl Landry, Sacramento ($13.4 million and $3 million, respectively)

Dan Gadzuric, Golden State ($7.4 million)

Jeff Foster and Solomon Jones, Indiana ($6.65 million and $1.5 million, respectively)

Joel Przybilla, Portland ($7.4 million)

Chris Wilcox, Detroit ($3 million)

Nazr Mohammed, Charlotte ($6.88 million)

There are other guys on minimum or near-minimum expiring deals (the Collins twins, Hilton Armstrong), and there are some serviceable guys on deals that extend beyond this season (Marcus Camby and Antawn Jamison, whose status I previously covered here).

You’ll notice not all of these guys are centers, and some of them are less likely to be traded because of recent injuries to other big men on their current teams. I listed them anyway, because in worst-case scenarios, a team just needs bodies; Mikki Moore played key postseason minutes for Boston two seasons ago.

The most likely scenario might be that neither team does anything. The Celtics have 15 guys on guaranteed contracts, meaning they’d have to waive someone in order to make a two-for-one trade. Both teams would have difficulty finding players they’d be willing to part with and who draw the sort of salary necessary to make a trade work — unless the Magic are willing to deal J.J. Redick, which seems extraordinarily unlikely. (The Magic do have more superfluous players making above the minimum than Boston, with Quentin Richardson and Chris Duhon out of the rotation now.) Orlando also dealt its 2011 first-rounder to Phoenix in the Jason Richardson/Hedo Turkoglu deal, hampering its ability to deal a future first-rounder.

Then there’s the reality that Orlando is the lone Eastern Conference contender that features a frightening center capable of playing 40-plus minutes per night. The Celtics have been going with Garnett and Davis late in games. The Heat often turn away from Zydrunas Ilgauskas and give heavy minutes to the 6-9 Joel Anthony alongside Chris Bosh. The Hawks play Al Horford at center in crunch time, though they have started Jason Collins against the Magic and some other big teams. The Bulls will have their Joakim Noah-Carlos Boozer pairing back for the playoffs, but you can guard both of those guys with power forwards.

The Bucks have Andrew Bogut and the Pacers feature Roy Hibbert, but neither team is good enough to be considered a danger at this point.

Given all this, Boston fans may want to think twice before poking fun at anyone’s big-man situation right now.