Why are the Nuggets ignoring the Knicks?

According to a report, Amar'e Stoudemire texted Carmelo to assure Melo that Stoudemire would welcome him to New York. (US PRESSWIRE)

The machinations of the nearly inevitable Carmelo Anthony trade are shading into the ridiculous, with Denver allegedly threatening the Nets, the talks going “underground” and reports Wednesday morning that Amar’e Stoudemire sent Anthony a text message assuring Melo that Stoudemire would welcome him to New York. Things reached their low point when Anthony was forced to address whether his wife, LaLa Vasquez, had any influence over his preferred playing location. 

Don’t ignore that bit about the Knicks, long known to be Anthony’s destination of choice. Alan Hahn of Newsday reported Wednesday that the Knicks “quietly are trying to put pieces in place to be ready to start meaningful negotiations for Anthony.” Those pieces, Hahn said, could include a first-round pick the Knicks acquire elsewhere, Danilo Gallinari and/or Wilson Chandler. Previous reports of a possible New York package have also included Landry Fields. 

Every Anthony report says the same thing about this: The Nuggets aren’t interested in what the Knicks have to offer, and they prefer the Nets’ combination of Derrick Favors (a prized rookie big man), Devin Harris and two first-round draft picks. 

Here’s a question that hasn’t been asked loudly enough, especially in the wake of more reports (via ESPN’s Chris Broussard) that Anthony still hasn’t agreed to sign an extension in New Jersey: Why is Denver so convinced the Nets’ package is better? 

Draft picks are great and all, but the Nuggets’ front office has seen Chandler, Fields and (to a lesser extent) Gallinari play this year, right? Is a package including two of those guys plus one first-rounder really worse than a package of Favors, Harris and two first-rounders? 

Draft picks are unknowns. The Nets’ 2011 first-rounder will almost certainly be a lottery pick, though it’s possible New Jersey could finish above a half-dozen teams depending on what happens with Anthony and the cast slated to come to Jersey with him. Who knows where New Jersey’s 2012 pick ends up. The Nets own Houston’s 2012 first-rounder, but that has top-14 protection through the 2016 draft. The 2011 first-rounder the Nets received from the Lakers has top-18 protection that won’t have to be invoked, since it will end up near the bottom of the first round. Even the Golden State pick that New Jersey owns, one of the prizes in any Carmelo deal, has more limited protections that last several seasons. 

These magical draft picks aren’t necessarily going to turn into even one elite player. About a year and a half ago, a bunch of ESPN researchers conducted an in-depth study to try to find out what sort of career a guy drafted in a particular slot will mostly likely have based on an advanced metric John Hollinger invented called “wins added.” The expected outcome declines faster than you think as you go down the first round.

The average No. 1 overall pick has a career close to Chris Webber’s. That’s fantastic.

The average third pick looks like Jerry Stackhouse. Nice. 

The average careers for picks numbers 5-8? In order: Juwan Howard, Tom Gugliotta, Jason Williams (the Orlando point guard) and T.J. Ford. Not so great, huh?

Of course, those are averages. Teams would hope to do much better with those picks, and many have. Paul Pierce was the 10th overall pick; Dirk Nowitzki went No. 9. 

Chandler, meanwhile, is averaging 18 points and nearly seven rebounds per game and he’s shooting 49 percent from the field and 37.5 percent from three-point range. He’s 23, improving across the board and can credibly guard at least three positions. Gallinari is 22 and a proven three-point ace, and he was getting to the line like a monster before tweaking his knee. He’s also a better defender than most realize. Fields leads all guards in rebounding, and though he’ll be out of position on an occassional pick-and-roll and crash the offensive glass a bit recklessly, this is a rookie averaging 10-and-7 and connecting on 52 percent overall and 37 percent from deep. He’s also scheduled to make the minimum salary for second-year players next season.

That last point is an important one: Rookies are cheap, and guys who haven’t even been drafted yet will be on their rookie deals much longer than Chandler and Gallinari. That’s good for Denver’s bottom line. Chandler will be a restricted free agent after this season, and if he keeps playing like this, some team is going to offer him a fat contract. Gallinari will make nearly $4.2 million next season and could potentially enter free agency in the summer of 2012. 

But these guys are proven, quality NBA players, and the Nuggets might not have many of those six months from now. They appeared ready to send Anthony and Chauncey Billups to New Jersey, and now they’re reportedly pushing to get Al Harrington involved in any Anthony deal. J.R. Smith will be an unrestricted free agent after this season, and Arron Afflalo, playing some fantastic two-way ball, is set to enter restricted free agency. Nene can opt out of the final year of his contract and become a free agent after this season, though it seems unlikely he’d leave $11.6 million in guaranteed money on the table to do so. 

The point is: The cupboard could be pretty bare soon in Denver. The Nuggets have to restock it any way they can, and the Knicks can offer one way to do that. Even viewed this way, New Jersey’s package may be more appealing. Favors is a powerful big man putting up solid per-minute numbers, and good bigs are hard to find. Draft picks are cheap and enticing. The Nuggets might think they can flip Harris to Portland for Nicolas Batum, a player their front office seems to value more highly than it does Chandler. Denver might even scoff at the stats New York’s players have accumulated, chalking them up to the fast pace the team has played at this season (the second fastest in the league). 

But there is real, young talent here, and you can’t dismiss that kind of talent out of hand.