Examining what it takes to be NBA MVP

Basically, the average MVP is Charles Barkley, who won the award in 1993 with Phoenix. (Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images)

By Jared Wade

With Zach Lowe off until Jan. 3, some guest writers will be contributing. Jared Wade writes about the NBA at Both Teams Played Hard, 8 Points, 9 Seconds and Hardwood Paroxysm. He lives in New York, where he puts hot sauce on everything he eats. For all his hoops and hot sauce updates, check him out on Twitter here, here or here.

The 2010-11 regular season is more than a third of the way complete, meaning we can start to seriously debate who should win the MVP award. Of course, many pundits have been tracking the candidates since Day 1, and it is pretty easy to make a case for any of Dirk Nowitzki, Chris Paul, Deron Williams or LeBron James as the current front-runner. But now is the time when the larger themes of the year are solidifying and individual story arcs are taking shape.

Unfortunately, the criteria for the award are ambiguous, and many voters use different rationale for their selections. As always, however, history can be a guide. So before we try to prognosticate which guy will end up with the hardware, let’s look back at what exactly a typical NBA MVP looks like.

By examining past winners, we get a snapshot of the typical MVP: a 27-year-old, healthy big man who leads his team to 60 wins while scoring 25 points (on 51 percent shooting), grabbing 13 boards and handing out five assists per game. We are looking at Charles Barkley on the Suns, basically. And we certainly are not looking at Steve Nash on the Suns.

Of the 28 players who have won an MVP, only seven have been guards. Such exclusivity also means that there’s one other factor that makes you more likely to win a trophy: already having one on your mantle. While 28 of the awards have been won by first-timers, the other 27 have gone to people who already had “MVP” on their resume.

That said, here are the statistical averages, highs and lows that MVP recipients have posted during their winning campaigns.

TEAM SUCCESS

Average winning percentage: 72.3 percent
Highest winning percentage: Michael Jordan, 87.8 percent (1995-96 Chicago Bulls, 72-10)
Lowest winning percentage: Bob Pettit, 45.8 percent (1955-56 St. Louis Hawks, 33-39)

If you want to be MVP, your team has to be good. Two guys have won despite playing on sub-.500 squads (Pettit and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar), but the majority of candidates need at least 50 wins to join the MVP conversation. But let’s be honest: A player shouldn’t get his hopes up even if he reaches 55 wins. Oddly enough, however, it’s relatively rare for a regular-season MVP to lead his team to a title. That has only happened 21 out of 55 times, and only Tim Duncan (in 2002-03) and Shaquille O’Neal have done so this millennium. So let’s leave Dirk alone, OK?

GET BUCKETS

Scoring average: 25.6 points per game
Highest average: Wilt Chamberlain, 37.6 (1959-60)
Lowest average: Wes Unseld, 13.8 (1968-69)

Average offensive rating: 117 (since 1977-78)
Highest offensive rating: Magic Johnson, 126 (1989-90)
Lowest offensive rating: Bill Walton, 105 (1977-78)

Only nine players have taken home MVPs while averaging fewer than 20 points. Considering that all nine of those went to either Bill Russell (five times), Nash (two times), Walton or Unseld, it’s safe to say that if you’re not a scorer, you better be transcendent in another facet of the game. As further evidence, 24 of the 55 trophies have gone to a player averaging at least 27 points. Pouring in points in a potent offense for a very good team seems to be the best way to get the attention of the voters. Shocker.

BOARD WORK

Rebounding average: 13.0 rebounds per game
Highest average: Chamberlain, 27.0 (1959-60)
Lowest average: Nash, 3.3 (2004-05)

Average rebounding rate: 14.5 percent (since 1970-71)
Highest rebounding rate: Moses Malone, 23.2 percent (1978-79)
Lowest rebounding rate: Nash, 5.2 percent (2004-05)

The high rebounding stats show us two things: 1) Just how many big men have won the MVP award, and 2) just how many more rebounds there used to be in a typical NBA game. On the first point, only seven guards have won an MVP: Allen Iverson, Kobe Bryant, Jordan, Nash, Bob Cousy, Magic Johnson and Oscar Robertson. The rest have all gone to forwards and centers, with legitimate big men (meaning not guys like Larry Bird, LeBron and Julius Erving) taking home the hardware 35 times. Regarding the board availability question, you just need to look at how field-goal percentage has changed over the past 50 years. Not once did the league-average shooting percentage eclipse 45 percent before 1969-70. By contrast, the NBA went 20 straight years shooting above 46 percent from 1976-77 to 1995-96. More made shots means fewer rebounds for everyone.

NO NEED TO PASS

Assist average: 5.3 assists per game
Highest average: Magic Johnson, 12.8 (1988-89)
Lowest average: Moses Malone, 1.3 (1982-83)

Average assist rate: 22.3 percent (since 1964-65)
Highest assist rate: Nash, 49.2 percent (2004-05)
Lowest assist rate: Moses Malone, 5.1 percent (1982-83)

If your first name isn’t Earvin, Steve or Oscar, voters really don’t care for your unselfishness. Monta Ellis is smiling right now.

BE EFFICIENT

Average Player Efficiency Rating (PER): 25.7
Highest PER: (tie) LeBron James and Michael Jordan, 31.7 (2008-09 and 1987-88)
Lowest PER: Dave Cowens, 18.1 (1972-73)

Average usage rate: 28.8 percent (since 1977-78)
Highest usage rate: Iverson, 35.9 percent (2000-01)
Lowest usage rate: Nash, 20.5 percent (2004-05)

Average turnover rate: 12.7 percent
Highest average turnover rate: Jordan, 7.7 percent (1997-98)
Lowest average turnover rate: Nash, 20.3 percent (2004-05)

It’s no surprise that the typical MVP is a very efficient player who has the ball in his hands constantly. The most interesting thing found here was that Jordan has the four lowest turnover rates on record by an MVP. And he actually has five of the lowest six if you throw in his other MVP season. Only Dirk, by 0.01 percent, stands in Jordan’s way of having the bottom five. I’m sure that would really bother him if he cared or had ever heard of this stat.

SHOOTING ACCURACY

Average field-goal percentage: 50.6 percent
Highest field-goal percentage: Chamberlain, 68.3 percent (1966-67)
Lowest field-goal percentage: Cousy, 37.8 percent (1956-57)

Average three-point shooting percentage: 31.6 percent (since 1979-80, minimum one make)
Highest three-point shooting percentage: Nash, 43.9 percent (2005-06)
Lowest three-point shooting percentage: Duncan, 10.0 percent (2001-02)

Average free-throw percentage: 74.2 percent
Highest free-throw percentage: Nash, 92.1 percent (2005-06)
Lowest free-throw percentage: Chamberlain, 38.0 percent (1967-68)

The favoritism toward players who shoot a high field-goal percentage is a product of the award’s being so big man-centric as opposed to voters valuing long-range accuracy. Aside from Bird, Nash, Nowitzki and Bob McAdoo, not many great shooters have won an MVP. Guys like Kobe, Jordan, Karl Malone, Garnett and Duncan have been mid-range assassins at times, but being one isn’t a requirement.

PLAYING D

Average defensive rating: 99.5 (since 1973-74)
Best defensive rating: (tie) Abdul-Jabbar and Walton, 89 (1973-74 and 1977-78)
Worst defensive rating: Nash, 111 (2004-05)

Steals average: 1.5 (since 1973-74)
Highest steals average: Jordan, 3.2 (1987-88)
Lowest steals average: Shaquille O’Neal, 0.5 (1999-2000)

Blocks average: 1.6 (since 1973-74)
Highest blocks average: Abdul-Jabbar, 4.1 (1975-76)
Lowest blocks average: Nash, 0.1 (2004-05)

Defensive stats are a poor way to measure how well someone plays defense, so these numbers are more trivial than illuminating. But, boy, MJ, Hakeem Olajuwon and David Robinson could sure fill up a defensive stat sheet. Just looking at the list of MVP winners, it seems like being a great defender certainly helps you acquire a trophy. Other than Bird, Magic, McAdoo, Nash, Nowitzki and Barkley, the winners by and large can lock people down.

NOT TOO YOUNG, NOT TOO OLD

Average age: 27.4 years old
Youngest: Unseld, 22 (1968-69)
Oldest: Karl Malone, 35 (1998-99)

Only eight MVP trophies have been handed to players who were older than 30, and four of them were to either Jordan or Malone, both of whom were ageless freaks. Only 11 awards have been won by guys younger than 25. So you apparently want to balance being a battle-weary vet with not being geriatric.

JUST SHOWING UP

Average games played: 78.7 games*
Fewest games played: Walton, 58 games (1977-78)
Most games played: 82 games (on 19 occasions)

Average minutes per game: 39.8
Fewest minutes per game: Walton, 33.3 (1977-78)
Most minutes per game: Chamberlain, 47.3 (1965-66)

Woody Allen said that 90 percent of success is just showing up. Turns out it’s a prerequisite of MVP candidates, because 49 of the 55 winners missed no more than four games. (Walton missed 24 in 1977-78, Iverson missed 11 in 2000-01, Cousy missed eight in 1956-57, Nash missed seven in 2004-05, Barkley missed six in 1992-93, Magic missed five in 1988-89 and LeBron missed five last season.) Walton is the only guy to win in a season during which he missed substantial time, once again showing why he — an oft-injured, low-scoring, pass-first big man who logged relatively few minutes — is the biggest MVP outlier the league has seen (with apologies to Nash).

Sorry, Rajon Rondo. Maybe next year.

* this average of 79 games played is since the league adopted the 82-game schedule in 1967-68 and does not include Karl Malone’s 49 games played during the lockout-shortened 1998-99 season