Arenas to Orlando? Don’t get your hopes up

Don't expect the Magic to trade VC for Gilbert Arenas. (Kevin C. Cox, Ned Dishman/NBAE/Getty Images)

It’s clear now that the possibility of Orlando’s dealing for Gilbert Arenas will continue to come up until Vince Carter’s contract for next season becomes fully guaranteed on the last day of June.

Michael Lee of The Washington Post had a nice story over the weekend about Arenas’ friendship with Orlando general manager Otis Smith, and Evan Dunlap of the Magic-themed blog Orlando Pinstriped Post reported Wednesday (citing an anonymous source) that the Magic have recently initiated Carter-for-Arenas discussions. Dunlap also reports that other players, including Andray Blatche and Rashard Lewis, could be involved in any theoretical Arenas deal.

The general Arenas-for-Carter structure, which the teams reportedly discussed over the summer, makes sense at first glance. Arenas will earn about the same salary as Carter this season and only about $1 million more than Carter next season. The latter amount means something to a team over the luxury-tax threshold (as Orlando will be) but isn’t enough on its own to quash trade talks. Carter is scheduled to make $18.3 million next season, but only $4 million of that is guaranteed if his team waives him by June 30, according to ShamSports. Many teams would blanch at the idea of paying anyone $4 million to go away, but it would be a small price to pay for Washington to get out of Arenas’ monster long-term deal. And even if the Wizards keep Carter around, his deal expires after next season while Areanas will be owed $22 million in 2013-14.

But acquiring Arenas makes little sense for Orlando, unless one (or all) of the following things are true:

1. The Magic have lost faith in Carter (and, to a lesser extent, Jameer Nelson) as a scorer/playmaker.

2. The Magic find a way to unload Lewis and/or Marcin Gortat in the Arenas deal or a separate trade. Gortat, amazingly enough, will have the option to make $7.7 million in 2013-14.

3. Smith is confident that in the future Arenas will waive enough of his guaranteed salary to make a buyout palatable for the Magic. This is a wild card.

4. The Magic really, really, really like the Brandon Bass/Ryan Anderson combination.

Taking on Arenas without getting rid of other long-term obligations puts Orlando in a difficult cap situation and could easily result in the team’s being stuck with a long-term core of Arenas, Lewis, Dwight Howard and Nelson. That’s not a bad core, but it’s not a championship-level core, either, unless Orlando can find supplementary talent elsewhere.

Exchanging Arenas for Carter alone leaves the Magic committed to paying $73.6 million to nine players in 2012-13: Howard, Nelson, Arenas, Lewis, Gortat, J.J. Redick, Bass (who has a player option), Chris Duhon and Quentin Richardson. In other words, without some major moves, the Magic would put themselves over this year’s luxury tax level two years in advance by acquiring Arenas. And this amount doesn’t address Mickael Pietrus or Anderson, whose rookie deal will be up after next season.

What about 2013-14, which seems so far in the distance? With Arenas, the Magic would already have about $33 million earmarked for him, Gortat and Richardson, plus $1.5 million they’d have to pay Duhon to make the rest of his deal for that season disappear.

Notice that Howard, Nelson and Lewis are not on that list. Nor are the names of any young players the Magic have now (such as Anderson or Daniel Orton) or will draft in the coming years. Howard is obviously essential, and depending on how the new collective bargaining agreement shakes out, he’ll be earning somewhere around $15 million per season under his next deal. Add that in, and you’re approaching $50 million already — nearly half of which would go to Arenas.

An Arenas deal is feasible for Orlando, but it’s a potential cap-crippler. The calculus would change if Lewis is involved, and though he’s insanely overpaid, his deal expires one year before Arenas’. I’m not sure that’s enough to get the Wizards to fork over up to $43.8 million for Lewis over the 2011-12 and 2012-13 seasons.

The Magic would obviously have to take multiple players back if they send out both Carter and Lewis, and I assume that’s where Blatche comes in. I can’t think of a player Orlando coach Stan Van Gundy would like less than the current version of Andray Blatche. He isolates too much on offense, takes questionable shots outside the flow and is rarely interested in playing defense. The Wizards have played significantly worse with Blatche on the court in each of the last two seasons, and he obviously lacks Lewis’ three-point range — a crucial ingredient in Orlando’s success.

Blatche has potential, and players can adapt and grow when placed in new systems. But giving Lewis’ minutes to some combination of Blatche/Anderson/Bass would seem, at best, a lateral move for this season.

Sure, Orlando’s offense isn’t yet performing up to expectations, and Carter’s game is trending downward in every way we’d expect for a former high-flying scorer who’s now in his mid-30s. But even so, acquiring Arenas this season seems like a reach unless a bunch of other things fall into place for Orlando.