Oden’s time in Portland may have expired

Greg Oden will have played in just 82 games over four seasons in the NBA. (NBAE via Getty Images)

The Trail Blazers announced Wednesday night that center Greg Oden would undergo microfracture surgery on his left knee and miss the rest of this season. We all know the basics: It means Oden will have played in just 82 of a possible 328 regular-season games since entering the league in 2007, and that he will have undergone microfracture surgery on both knees before turning 23.

It’s a sad story of potential that appears more and more likely to go unfulfilled. Several players — including Amar’e Stoudemire, Jason Kidd and Zach Randolph — have recovered from microfracture surgery and prospered. Oden may still join that group. But his list of injuries is getting long. Two microfracture surgeries. A broken left patella. A broken wrist, an injured ankle, an injured foot and, according to SI.com’s Ian Thomsen, a broken hip he suffered as a kid that experts have told Oden might be related to his ongoing knee problems. These aren’t the repetitive foot problems of Bill Walton or Yao Ming — problems you expect will return again and again — but they now add up to a serious injury history that could be career-threatening.

Whether it’s fluky bad luck or something worse, it almost doesn’t matter anymore. The question now is what kind of player Oden can be when healthy, and what “healthy” even means for him.

What is certain is that Oden will become an unrestricted free agent this summer. The Blazers did not sign him to an extension by the Nov. 1 deadline, making Oden the first No. 1 pick since Kwame Brown (who went first in 2001) to go four full seasons without securing an extension to his rookie deal.

The Blazers could, in theory, retain the right to match any competing offer for Oden by tendering him a qualifying offer worth $8.79 million. But they won’t do that. They can’t. That’s the kind of salary you give to a solid NBA starter, and no team can afford to pay such a salary to a player with Oden’s injury history. Especially not a team whose 2011-12 payroll will be pushing $60 million if they decide to pick up the last year on Andre Miller’s contract.

Oden’s career in Portland might be done. Some team will make a run at him in July, based on potential. Maybe it will be Portland, which counts Marcus Camby as its only center under contract for next season. If it’s not Portland, it will be some other team willing to cross its fingers and hope Oden finally stay on the floor.

But for right now? No matter how much you hate the comparison, Oden is Sam Bowie. I’m sorry to even write it. But as long as Oden is hurt and Kevin Durant is winning scoring titles, the comparison is unavoidable. And sadly, it’s also accurate, especially given that there were rumblings about Oden’s health when he was drafted.

Perhaps in 2012 or 2013, Oden will draw different comparisons, like to those of Stoudemire, Kidd or Randolph.