Pointing the finger for Boston’s TO problem

Rajon Rondo is to blame for the bulk of Boston's cough-ups. (AP)

It continues to confound Boston fans: Their team is among the most experienced and detail-oriented in the league, and yet the Celtics continue to cough up the ball at an inexcusable rate. How can a team that pays such close attention to the inch-by-inch nuances of showing on a pick-and-roll give away possessions 15 or 20 times per game?

Only four teams turned the ball over more often than the Celtics last season, according to Basketball-Reference. Only the Bobcats out-gaffed Boston in 2008-09. And only the Kings showed less care for the rock in 2007-08, when the Celtics won the championship.

Coach Doc Rivers spent much of the preseason stressing turnover avoidance, and yet the C’s are right back to their old ways: They’ve turned the ball over 39 times in their first two games.

What in the world is going on here? Well, after digging through stats and video on Synergy Sports, two conclusions jumped out immediately:

1) On pick-and-roll plays in which the ball-handler finished the play, only eight teams turned the ball over more often than Boston last season. This would seem to point the finger at Rajon Rondo and Paul Pierce, who serve most often as the ball-handler in these situations.

2) Only one team, the Timberwolves, turned the ball over more in transition than Boston, which coughed it up on 13.8 percent of all fast-break opportunities. Most teams turn the ball over on about 10.5 percent of their transition chances. Boston’s stat is awful because it rarely runs and produces wonderful looks when it does run and manage to avoid turning over the ball. The Celtics ranked 15th in points per possession in transition, suggesting they are an efficient fast-break team — except for the turnovers.

After watching all 197 of Boston’s transition turnovers (no, really. I did. And it was torture) from last season, there is one uncomfortable yet inescapable conclusion:

It is largely Rajon Rondo’s fault. To be clear, he is a fantastic player whose creativity fuels just about all of Boston’s half-court offense, and he is excellent at one specific transition play — dribbling into the foul line area and shoveling the ball to a trailing three-point shooter. His expertise on this play could single-handedly prolong Ray Allen’s career. But the rest of his transition game needs lots and lots of work.

The overall Synergy stats back me up: Rondo produced just 0.99 points per possession on fast breaks he finished (with a turnover or a shot, mostly), a mark that ranked 245th in the league. Official scorers blamed Rondo for 73 of those 197 turnovers (37 percent), but it was really worse than that. Many turnovers assigned to others were actually Rondo’s fault.

Rondo’s main bad habits include the following:

• The highlight, home run pass

This falls into two categories:

1) Long outlet passes up the middle of the court to a big man — often well-covered — running ahead of the play. Rondo loves these, and when they work, they are spectacular. But they usually don’t work, partly because they are very difficult, and partly because they ask a lot of guys who are not used to gathering the ball at the foul line (or above) and doing something with it.

2) Highlight bounce passes from the wing to the paint. Rondo prefers to work from the side of the court (usually the left side) on fast breaks, and he rarely misses a chance to throw a one-handed bounce pass across the court to a big man lumbering down the middle. When you do this left-handed, and when the target is Kendrick Perkins or Brian Scalabrine running at full speed with a defender in close pursuit, you are basically working as the NBA equivalent of Brett Favre throwing into traffic. A turnover is likely.

• Misunderstanding the capabilities of big men.

This is Rondo’s worst fast-break habit. A point guard cannot try to finish a fast break by passing to Perkins a couple of steps above the foul line. Perkins is already one of the most turnover-prone centers in the league, and he does not have good hands or the combination of speed and coordination necessary to finish a fast break from 20 feet out. Scorers credited Perkins with seven transition turnovers, but I placed the blame for three of those on Rondo. (Overall, I shifted 13 turnovers assigned to other Celtics back to Rondo, because his passes put the recipients in difficult-to-impossible positions. Make that change, and Rondo is responsible for 86 of Boston’s 197 transition turnovers — 44 percent.)

• Holding on to the ball too long.

The other classic Rondo transition turnover is the play in which he opts to hold the ball, dribbles along the baseline and under the rim, and then throws a soft, short-distance pass to a trailing big man in the paint.

The intent here is good, but the execution needs work. By holding the ball this long, Rondo has given the defense a chance to catch up to the trailers (usually Perkins or Kevin Garnett). When Rondo’s pass arrives, there are often multiple sets of arms battling to grab or tap the ball. It’s a low-percentage play.

Rondo often notices the paint is overcrowded and looks to pass elsewhere. Problem: He’s picked up his dribble and is often airborne by the time he makes this realization, which leads to desperate kick-outs to perimeter shooters — passes that often land out of bounds or in the hands of opponents.

So, Rondo sometimes passes too early, and sometimes too late. Where’s his happy medium?

• Passing up layups

Rondo must look to score more. Unselfishness can be costly. For instance, in one game last season, Rondo came streaking down the right side on a 3-on-1. He had an easy path to the basket, but instead of taking it himself, he dumped the ball to Pierce on the left side. Pierce wasn’t expecting the ball, and ended up trapped under the basket when he received the pass. As he fell out bounds, Pierce tossed the ball to Shelden Williams, who (shockingly) mishandled it. Shoot the ball, Rajon!

Understand: Boston’s problems in transition are not all on Rondo. Some other notes from the Synergy video:

• Pierce has historically been a tad more turnover-prone than the average small forward, and he’s a shaky transition player. It’s not news that Pierce tends to dribble into crowds and commit charges in transition. He was responsible for 32 of Boston’s 197 transition cough-ups.

• Allen runs into trouble when he dribbles into the paint looking to pass but does not have a target in mind. He was responsible for 26 of Boston’s 197 turnovers, and he’d often be better served looking to score or pulling the ball back out.

• Garnett gets too cute with the ball in the high post. This is partly Rondo’s fault, because Garnett often receives those dump-out passes near the foul line. When he does, he enjoys touching a quick pass to another player under the rim. It’s usually a low-percentage play.

• Tony Allen was alternatively brilliant and horrifically out of control in transition, which is news to no one.

Rondo is still young, and he has to continue improving for the Celtics to be a championship contender this season. Most people focus on Rondo’s shaky jumper, but taking better care of the ball in transition could be just as important to a Celtics team that needs all the easy looks it can get.