What are Knicks willing to deal for Carmelo?

Danilo Gallinari may be the sticking point in the Knicks' bid to acquire Carmelo Anthony. (Getty Images)

News broke Tuesday night that the Knicks may have passed the Nets in the race to acquire Carmelo Anthony, and that New York may now be more willing to include Danilo Gallinari in a series of deals that would lead to the acquisition of the Nuggets’ forward. The caveat: This is all anonymously sourced information, and it’s clear the situation is in its early stages and remains in flux.

Chris Sheridan, who broke the larger story for ESPN.com, reports the Knicks have long been comfortable centering a package on Anthony Randolph and Eddy Curry‘s expiring contract. But they need to sweeten that package somehow, and Sheridan reports the sweetener could be Gallinari or a first-round pick the Knicks would acquire in a separate trade using Gallinari or perhaps Toney Douglas.

This is a lot to digest, so let’s break it down into a series of questions:

• Do the Knicks really want to give up both Randolph and Gallinari?

It’s unclear whether the scenario Sheridan outlined ultimately ends up with both Gallinari and Randolph leaving New York. But if they both go, it would leave the roster quite bare. Without those two, the Knicks would have about $55.5 million committed to the following players for 2011-2012, according to ShamSports (this assumes a ballpark $20 million salary for Anthony): Carmelo, Amar’e Stoudemire, Raymond Felton, Ronny Turiaf ($4.36 million player option), Douglas (brought back on a cheap team option), Timofey Mozgov and Bill Walker.

If the cap stays at around the same level it is now — the biggest “if” in basketball, I realize — the Knicks would have a tiny slice of cap room to fill out the rest of the roster. They could also easily get over the cap — and become eligible for things like the mid-level exception — by retaining one of their two current rookies (Landry Fields, namely) and re-signing Wilson Chandler, who is eligible to be a restricted free agent after this season.

Chris Paul can become a free agent after next season, so New York fans would obviously want to know what the 2012-13 cap situation would look like in any scenario that sees Randolph and Gallinari both leave in an Anthony deal. The answer: The Knicks, if they chose to, could clear the roster of everyone but Anthony and Stoudemire by that time. They’d have to jettison Douglas and Mozgov, whose deal for 2012-13 is only partially guaranteed, but they can get to a place where the only money on the books for 2012-13 is the approximately $40 million they’d owe their two stars.

That will likely be enough to land Paul on something resembling a max deal. But are New York fans ready to go through this scenario again?

• What if they don’t have to give up Randolph?

A Curry-Gallinari-draft pick combination for Anthony works under the collective bargaining agreement, and the Knicks might be able to snag that draft pick without giving up Randolph. (Note: Remember, the Rockets own the right to swap first-rounders with New York in the next draft, meaning New York’s pick will likely be outside the lottery if the Rockets do well this season. The Knicks do not own a 2012 first-round pick.)

Randolph will cost a shade more than $2.9 million in 2011-12 and could become a restricted free agent after that season. He’d eat into New York’s cap room a bit, and he might be a redundant frontcourt player with Carmelo and Amar’e around, but you’d like to have some sort of young foundation, right?

• How much better is Anthony than Gallinari?

For all the talk of how Anthony is not a franchise player, he’s much better than Gallinari right now. Of course, Gallinari is 22 and Anthony will be 27 by the end of this season. Anthony is at his peak; Gallo is a couple of years away from his.

Anthony will never be able to duplicate Gallnari’s three-point shooting — a hugely important skill in today’s NBA — but it’s unclear right now if Gallinari will ever become a go-to scorer anywhere near Carmelo’s level. Gallinari’s usage rate last season was a just below 20 percent, meaning fewer than one-fifth of New York’s possessions ended with his doing something — shooting, getting to the line, turning the ball over, etc. There are five players on the court, so every player in a perfectly balanced lineup would have a usage rate of 20 percent.

Anthony’s usage rate last season? A massive 33.4 percent, one of the highest figures in the league. That’s probably too high, in fact. But the key is that Anthony is still able to produce at least league-average shooting percentages and efficiency stats even while carrying such a heavy burden. That he does so despite his questionable shot selection is impressive, and largely the result of his ability to hit difficult shots, get to the line a ton and avoid turnovers.

Gallinari has not proved he can be that sort of offensive player. Can he become more a of a heavy-volume scorer and get to the line more? Maybe. His combination of height (6-foot-10), ball-handling skills and elite three-point shooting is a wonderful foundation, and we can assume some degree of improvement in his offensive game as he gets more experience.

But can he reach Anthony’s level?

That’s the main question here. Both players’ rebounding, defense and passing numbers are basically a wash, though it should be noted that Denver’s defense has performed slightly to significantly worse with Anthony on the floor versus with him on the bench in each of the last three seasons, according to Basketball Value. The Knicks were a bit stingier with Gallinari on the court last season, and perhaps it’s wise to assume Gallinari will get better in these non-scoring areas as he ages.

Perhaps.

• Who shoots the threes?

Mike D’Antoni still coaches the Knicks, and he has called Gallinari perhaps the best shooter he has seen. D’Antoni, as you know, loves three-pointers. Anthony is a not a good three-point shooter, having hit just 31 percent from deep for his career.

Finding a reliable high-volume three-point shooter isn’t easy, but the Knicks will have to find one if they deal Gallinari.

There are lots of other questions. This discussion just got very, very interesting.