Thunder face tough call on Green’s contract

Forward Jeff Green's performance may not merit a contract extension. (Getty Images)

Kevin Durant has been the NBA’s saint lately.

He announced his $85 million contract extension over Twitter instead of holding a press conference … or having a one-hour special on prime-time television. He was the most dominant force in the world in leading the U.S. to the gold medal at the FIBA World Championship in Turkey. And this week, he suggested that less-heralded players Nenad Krstic and Thabo Sefolosha join him on the cover of Sports Illustrated so the two could receive more publicity.

But early this morning, we got the first comments from Durant that might be considered perhaps the teensiest bit controversial: He told Chris Tomasson of FanHouse that he’d prefer the Thunder sign Jeff Green to a contract extension before the Nov. 1 deadline. His exact words, via Tomasson:

“I hope they do. I think he’s worked so hard. He deserves it. He’s going to do a great job of bringing it every day and not worrying about it. Hopefully, it gets done.”

Russell Westbrook, the clear No. 2 player on the Oklahoma City totem pole, echoed Durant’s comments to Tomasson.

At first glance, this seems innocuous, and valid. Of course the Thunder and general manager Sam Presti should sign Green to a reasonable extension before he becomes a restricted free agent this summer. He’s one-third of the core group that has the Thunder positioned as perhaps the most exciting young team in the NBA.

But it’s not that simple. Durant is already on the books with a deal that kicks in next season and averages about $16.5 million per season through 2015-2016, according to ShamSports. Westbrook could become a free agent after the 2011-12 season, and you’d have to imagine he’ll demand an extension averaging at least $12 million per season — provided the next collective bargaining agreement looks something like this one. That’s nearly $30 million for two players, and that’s before we get into the futures of Krstic (a free agent after this season) and James Harden, who may emerge as a more valuable player than Green.

Lurking in the background: Serge Ibaka, the 21-year-old athletic freak who shares the power forward role with Green.

If the Thunder take care of only Durant, Green, Westbrook, Harden and Ibaka, they could – depending on how these players develop — find themselves over whatever sort of salary cap exists in 2013-2014. That seems like eons from now, but it’s Presti’s job to think about what the roster should look like eons from now.

Being capped out with those five guys isn’t necessarily a bad thing. That’s a wonderful core to have, and if the new CBA retains things like the Larry Bird exception and the mid-level exception, everything will be just fine in Oklahoma City.

But I’d submit this: Re-signing Green is far from a no-brainer, not with Westbrook and Harden looking like studs and Ibaka looming. And especially not when Green’s plus/minus numbers are considered. Numbers like this: The Thunder gave up nearly 11 more points per 100 possessions with Green on the floor last season versus with him on the bench. That’s bad. How bad? It was the worst defensive on-court-off-court differential in the NBA, according to Basketball Value. That number will prove an outlier in its sheer size, but the Thunder/Sonics defense has performed significantly worse with Green on the floor in each of his three seasons.

This reminds me a bit of the debate Henry Abbott of TrueHoop kicked off last season when he noted Durant’s awful plus-minus numbers in 2008-09. Green, like Durant, looks to be a good player. Sure, he probably takes too many long two-point jumpers, but he’s a league-average three-point shooter who brings a nice, diverse set of skills to the court. How could someone like this be (apparently) hurting his team so much?

Here’s the thing: The Durant situation corrected itself last year, when the Thunder improved dramatically and Durant’s plus/minus stats shot up to the top of the league right along with his team. Green’s numbers got worse. Opposing power forwards put up a Player Efficiency Rating of 20.1 against Green last season, according to 82games.com. That’s All-Star-level production from Green’s direct counterpart.

This could be a bit of random statistical noise that will correct itself this season. For instance, Green played about 1,300 of his 3,043 minutes last season in one five-man group — the Thunder’s starting lineup — and that group, for whatever reason, allowed more points per possession than the Thunder did overall. Indeed, Westbrook and Sefolosha, both generally regarded as tough defenders, also had poor defensive plus/minus numbers last season. Green shared the bulk of his minutes with those two guys. Maybe it was just a bad combination. Maybe the numbers will look different this season.

After all, some of the five-man units that included Green excelled defensively. And the team’s offense has consistently scored more efficiently with Green on the court, so the numbers are far from being all bad. Presti likely has his own secret adjusted plus/minus numbers that might show Green in a wholly different light. (For what it’s worth, the adjusted plus/minus numbers at Basketball Value also really hate Green. For the uninitiated, adjusted plus/minus systems use all sort of sophisticated math to adjust for the quality of a player’s teammates and opponents, the goal being to isolate a particular player’s contributions.)

Is all of this enough to give Presti pause when thinking about re-signing Green? I don’t know, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Green were playing elsewhere next season.