Why Orlando belongs in the title discussion

Record aside, the Magic were the best team in the league last season. (NBAE via Getty Images)

When I listed five teams I thought could realistically win the title, I expected many people to object to San Antonio’s inclusion. What I did not expect was a slew of folks who said, rather emphatically, that there are only three true title contenders: Miami, Boston and the Los Angeles Lakers.

My message to those people: Orlando needs to be on that list.

Record aside, the Magic were the best team in the league during the 2009-10 regular season. They had the largest point differential, and they were the only team to rank in the top five in both points per possession and points allowed per possession. They obliterated the league during the second half of the season, posting a 33-8 record, and they swept the Bobcats and Hawks before falling in six games to the Celtics in the Eastern Conference finals.

And yet, that series defeat, combined with the emergence of the new-look Heat and some shrewd signings in Boston this summer, has moved the Magic to the fringes of the championship conversation. That’s not the case everywhere, Magic fans, so don’t sound The Disrespect Alarm too loudly. Ken Berger at CBSSports.com has said a seven-game series against the Magic would be the “biggest test” for the revamped Heat. David Aldridge at NBA.com has the Magic atop his current power rankings. John Schuhmann, also of NBA.com, has been tweeting today about Orlando’s incredible preseason stats, saying they are (very early) indicators that the Magic belong in the title-contender conversation. (The Magic are 6-0 in the preseason, outscoring opponents by 25 points per game).

I’m with this group: Orlando is a legit title contender. The Magic’s defense is already good enough to win the title, and there is no reason to expect it will get drop off this season. It is based on Dwight Howard and a system the rest of the Magic know how to execute consistently. They will be able to frustrate everyone, including the Heat.

The Magic lost to Boston because their offense sputtered, and Stan Van Gundy is doing what he can with this roster to make sure that doesn’t happen again. The shorthand narrative that emerged from the Boston series went something like this: The Celtics can guard Howard one-on-one in the post, and that alone is enough to disrupt Orlando’s inside-out offense.

There is truth in that narrative, but it alone does not explain the complete collapse in that series of Vince Carter, Jameer Nelson and Rashard Lewis (check out the ugly stats). The Magic go to Howard in the post on a small minority of the 90 or so possessions they get in a typical game. They often use various pick-and-roll combinatios in conjunction with off-the-ball action designed to produce open threes. Combine those possessions with dump-ins to Howard, and you’ve accounted for the majority of the offensive plays Orlando ran against Boston.

And the Celtics figured out that stuff. Kendrick Perkins can guard Howard in the post all by himself. The Orlando pick-and-rolls are impossible to smother completely, but Boston understood them and knew where and how to rotate against every variation the Magic threw at it. The Magic’s offense became predictable, though the Eastern Conference finals were still more competitive than most folks care to remember.

Van Gundy understands the predictability problem. This is why he’s making a point in the preseason to go to Lewis on the left block, play Brandon Bass and Ryan Anderson more, give Howard the freedom to shoot jumpers and experiment with other offensive sets the team seldom used last season.

Will those changes be enough to a beat defense as good as Boston’s? I’m not so sure, but they can’t hurt. Besides, Orlando does has a couple of other things going for it:

• Miami, of course, has no low-post player who can guard Howard one-on-one.

• If the organization feels the Magic’s offense still isn’t good enough come February, it has a number of desirable trade chips  to use. Bass will make $4 million per season through 2013, and the league will see that as a relatively cheap price if Bass can maintain the level of play he has shown in the preseason. And then there’s Carter, whose funky deal guarantees him only $4 million of his $18.3 million salary for the 2011-12 season.

There are rumblings out of Orlando today that there simply aren’t enough minutes for the team’s 11 rotation-level players, so a trade would not be shocking.

Either way, this is a team that belongs in the Miami-Boston-Los Angeles conversation. Don’t overlook it.