How Rose can become an MVP contender

Derrick Rose must do a few things before he can be deemed MVP-worthy. (NBAE via Getty Images)

This past weekend, Derrick Rose told FanHouse: “Why can’t I be MVP of the league?” And this was the second time he’s posed the question within the last few weeks, so he’s clearly serious. He believes he can butt his way into the conversation for MVP.

OK, fine. There’s an argument that claims LeBron James and Dwyane Wade hurt themselves in future MVP balloting by teaming up in Miami, in the same way two nominated actors from the same film steal votes from each other at the Oscars. So let’s say we scratch them off the list. That still leaves a solid half-dozen or so players, at least, ahead of Rose on the MVP totem pole going into the 2010-11 season: Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard, Dirk Nowitzki, Chris Paul, Steve Nash and Deron Williams, and perhaps even a secondary group that includes Brandon Roy, Amar’e Stoudemire, Tim Duncan and Josh Smith. (Note to Spurs fans: I love Duncan. He’s back here because I’m assuming he won’t play enough to be seriously considered.)

But there are things Rose can do to be taken seriously in the MVP race. Two things, really:

1) IMPROVE CHICAGO’S OFFENSE

Only three teams scored fewer points per 100 possessions than the Bulls last season, when Chicago scored just 103.5 points per 100 possessions. The Bulls scored nearly five more points per 100 possessions the year before, meaning Chicago’s offense took a major hit with the departure of Ben Gordon to Detroit and John Salmons to the Bucks.

Let’s be clear: This is not solely on Rose — not even close. The opposite may in fact be true; Rose might have been the only thing holding up a rickety Chicago offense that had no long-range shooting and worked from an uninspired playbook. The major positive sign: Rose’s individual efficiency actually improved as he took on a much larger burden in Chicago’s offense. That is often not the case with young players — or players of any age, really — who see shooting percentages dip and turnovers rise as they are asked to score more.

Not Rose. He shot better, got to the line a smidgen more and assisted on a (slightly) higher percentage of his team’s baskets. And for all the hubbub about Rose’s being a below-average distributor, his assist rate ranked 19th among all players who logged at least 1,000 minutes last season — right behind Tony Parker and ahead of Chauncey Billups, Brandon Jennings and Tyreke Evans.

He’s nowhere near the Williams/Paul/Nash/Rajon Rondo level in terms of assist rate, but he’s not as mediocre as most folks believe.

But still, for Rose to merit any serious consideration for MVP, he has to get Chicago’s offense out of the basement and at least into the middle of the pack. The Bulls promise to be an elite defensive team, so an average offense would be enough to make them a 50-win club capable of scaring the Boston-Miami-Orlando triumvirate in May and June. The Bulls’ front office has given Rose a low-post scorer (Carlos Boozer) and a deadly long-range shooter (Kyle Korver) to work with, so his assist rates should rise. If they don’t, critics will justifiably question Rose’s ability as a passer.

Rose must also score more efficiently in one of two ways:

• Make more threes. Rose has worked hard on this part of his game after hitting only 32 threes in two seasons, but his performance at the FIBA World Championship this summer showed he still does not have consistent NBA three-point range.

• Get to the line more. This is an absolute must for Rose. Example: A total of 37 players had usage rates higher than 25 percent last season, meaning they used up — with a shot, assist, turnover or some other possession-ending play — at least a quarter of their team’s possessions while on the court. In other words, these are the guys who carried the load for their teams on offense. Rose was one of those 37 players. Out of that group, Rose ranked 30th in free-throw attempts per 36 minutes. That’s not good enough.

I’d expect Rose to continue improving on offense this season. That brings us to:

2) IMPROVE ON DEFENSE

The Bulls allowed slightly more points per possession with Rose on the floor last season versus with him on the bench. That was actually a huge improvement over Rose’s rookie season, in which Chicago allowed a disastrous 7.9 more points per 100 possessions with Rose on the court. Other available defensive numbers suggest Rose was much better on D last season, and he stands to take another leap under new coach Tom Thibodeau – especially considering what Thibodeau’s system helped do for the defensive reputations of Paul Pierce and Ray Allen in Boston.

Defending point guards in the NBA these days is hard, and Rose will have to do it without Kirk Hinrich around to provide relief this season. If he gets a bit stingier on D, we can start talking about his place in the back end of the MVP discussion. But not yet.