Key questions for the five title contenders

A three-peat may be in store for the Lakers ... if their defense stays stingy. (Getty Images)

Let’s get this caveat out of the way: We’re limiting this list to five title contenders, and many of you will say one or two of these teams don’t belong here — and that others belong in their places.

I’m not ready to put those other teams on this list. Not yet. The Thunder and Blazers as we know them haven’t won a playoff series. The Mavericks have won one since their 2006 run to the Finals, and their potential youth infusion (Roddy Beaubois) is recovering from a broken foot. It’s hard to discuss the Rockets until we see what they might get from Yao Ming. And who the heck knows what’s going on in Denver?

The Bucks, Bulls and Hawks might emerge to challenge the East’s top three, but for now, we’re limiting the true championship contenders to the following five teams. Here they are, in order from most to least likely to win the title, along with key questions each faces.

1. LOS ANGELES LAKERS

Obvious question: How healthy will they be in June?

Kobe Bryant‘s knee looked shaky during a preseason trip to Spain, and Phil Jackson is worried Andrew Bynum‘s knee may never be healthy enough for the center to be a 35-minute-per-game beast. Both are legit concerns.

The meatier question: Can L.A.’s defense stay as stingy?

The Lakers pulled off a rare defensive double last season, becoming just the fourth team since 1999 to hold opponents below 33 percent shooting from three-point range and allow fewer than one free throw for every five opponent field-goal attempts. In other words: The Lakers completely took away the two most efficient shots in the game.

It wasn’t a total surprise; the Lakers ranked in the top six defensively in each of those categories in 2008-2009, but they reached another level last season. Their size inside allows their perimeter defenders to chase opposing guards aggressively, and their style of overloading the ball side leaves only the toughest of outside openings — the skip pass across the court to a temporarily open shooter on the weak side.

But what if Bynum is limited during the playoffs? The Lakers played 17 regular-season games without Bynum last season, and their three-point defense barely slipped in those games. Opponents hit just 34.1 percent in those 17 games, and they attempted fewer shots from deep than the Lakers allowed on average.

That’s a good sign, but if health remains a concern as L.A.’s core ages, its defense might slip a level. Of course, if its offense bounces back to 2008-09 levels …

2. MIAMI HEAT

The obvious questions: Will the stars jell?

All we can do on the chemistry front is wait and watch, but my hunch is that concerns about who will be “the man” are overblown. LeBron James and Dwyane Wade are both unselfish, and Chris Bosh is a natural second option as a pick-and-roll partner. This is going to work.

The meatier question: Can the Heat improve this roster if they have to?

What might not work is the rest of the roster, at least once you get past Udonis Haslem, Mike Miller and (if you’re being generous) Mario Chalmers. As TrueHoop’s Henry Abbott pointed out, the Heat’s bench consists of aging players and unproven youngsters. They’re all on cheap deals that either expire after this season or contain minimum-level player options for 2011-12. That makes each of them expendable. But it also limits their value as trade chips. Miami can’t get quality on-court talent in return for, say, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and his $1.35 million deal.

If the bench proves a disaster, how can Miami improve it in-season?

3. BOSTON CELTICS

The obvious question: Can this aging team stay healthy?

Only three teams have an average age higher than the Celtics once you adjust for the likely minutes of each player, according to Kevin Pelton of Basketball Prospectus. Questions about Boston’s age are fair game, and skeptics will say the team was lucky last season to get its nagging injuries out of the way during the winter.

But we can only guess now how the health issues will play out.

The meatier question: Can this team score enough to win it all?

By some measures, the 2009-2010 Celtics were among the worst offensive teams to make the Finals. They scored 107.7 points per 100 possessions, a tick above the league average of 107.6. Since 1990, only eight of the 42 teams to advance to the Finals have recorded offensive ratings close to the league average (or come in below it), according to Basketball Reference.

For being a title contender, the Celtics are amazingly careless with the ball. Their post game flourished in the postseason only when Mike Brown decided Antawn Jamison really could guard Kevin Garnett on the block. They had no consistent answer when teams sagged off Rajon Rondo. Their bench lacked a reliable scorer and their top backcourt sub, Tony Allen, was a disaster when the ball was in his hands.

All the team’s offseason moves were designed to improve the offense. Will it be enough? And will it come at the expense of the team’s elite defense?

4. ORLANDO MAGIC

The obvious question: Can Dwight Howard elevate his post game so that Orlando’s offense doesn’t stagnate against teams that can guard him one-on-one?

The cliché narrative about Orlando’s last two postseason losses — and its tougher-than-expected seven-game victory against Boston in 2009 — is that the Magic’s offense sputters against teams that can defend Howard one-on-one.

But Howard’s post game is only part of Orlando’s offense, and you can’t point solely to that component in trying to explain why a team that scored 111.4 points per 100 possessions in the regular season managed just 103.2 points per 100 possessions in six games against Boston in the East finals last May.

The meatier question: What about the other guys?

At its heart, the Magic’s offense is based on pick-and-rolls involving Howard as the screener and either Jameer Nelson or Vince Carter as the ball-handler. As defenses scramble to contain that play, the Magic’s ace three-point bombers wait for a possible open look.

It is that play that failed in all but about six quarters or so against Boston (and, to a lesser extent, the Lakers in the 2009 Finals). Carter and Nelson finished poorly in the lane and recorded exactly as many turnovers as assists; Carter looked feeble in doing so. Rashard Lewis collapsed against Boston’s pressure, and Matt Barnes couldn’t punish the Celtics for tilting their entire pick-and-roll defense away from him.

Stan Van Gundy‘s a smart guy, and he realizes the best defensive teams can limit even the most potent pick-and-roll if they know it’s coming. The Magic are spending part of their preseason playing with the idea of posting up players other than Howard (Lewis is especially effective from the left baseline) and initiating their offense from the elbow and elsewhere on the perimeter.

The goal, Van Gundy told the Orlando Sentinel, is to be less predictable, and that statement alone is an admission that the Magic’s entire offense, and not just Howard, flamed out against Boston.

5. SAN ANTONIO SPURS

The obvious question: Can the old guys still carry the load for a championship team?

There’s not much original to say here. Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili are into their mid-30s, and both of them — along with Tony Parker – battled various injuries last season. Again, we can only wait and watch.

The meatier question: Do the Spurs need to overhaul their formula?

The Spurs have won the same way for a decade: with low-risk basketball. On offense, they want one good shot. That means no turnovers and (mostly) no crashing the offensive glass for fear of giving up a transition bucket on the other end. On defense, they want to force you into taking one bad shot. They don’t gamble for steals, and they don’t give you second chances.

The Spurs stretched that model to its breaking point two years ago, when they ranked last in offensive rebounding, drawing fouls on offense and forcing turnovers on defense. They topped the league in the opposite categories — defensive rebounding, protecting the ball and avoiding fouls. It was low-risk hoops, as if implemented by a computer system.

The team made small movements away from those extremes last season, and they may have to continue on that path if they want to challenge the Lakers and the East’s elite. Their personnel demands it. DeJuan Blair pushed the Spurs above the league average in offensive rebounding last season for the first time since 2004-05, when they were right at the league average mark. Blair and George Hill can both swipe the ball on defense, and Hill is a demon of a finisher on the break. Richard Jefferson, once a slasher (I swear!), attempted a career-low 4.1 free throws per 36 minutes last season; the Spurs need that number to jump back up, or their four-year, $38.9 million commitment to Jefferson will be a sunk cost. Parker and Ginobili, if healthy, should get to the line more.